PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Sun, 24 May 2026, 23:00 UTCFull time

Inter Miami

6–4Full-time recap

Philadelphia Union

This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Inter Miami's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Inter Miami's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

Inter Miami's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Inter Miami's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Goals for4 goals/match2.6 goals/match1.57 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Inter Miami have a visible home split

moderate

Inter Miami's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots20.7 shots/match16.3 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Corners5.87 corners/match5.73 corners/match4.73 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Inter Miami95
Philadelphia Union18.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Inter Miami97.2
Philadelphia Union41.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Inter Miami36.1
Philadelphia Union71.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Inter Miami75
Philadelphia Union98.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Inter Miami78.3
Philadelphia Union95
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 63%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Inter Miami88.3
Philadelphia Union81.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Inter Miami89.2
Philadelphia Union72.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
MetricInter MiamiPhiladelphia Union
Goals scored4 goals/match5 obs.1.8 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed2.6 goals/match5 obs.2.6 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals3 xG/match5 obs.1.85 xG/match5 obs.
Shots18.4 shots/match5 obs.16.8 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target8.2 shots/match5 obs.5.4 shots/match5 obs.
Possession57.4%5 obs.40.6%5 obs.
Corners6.4 corners/match5 obs.4.6 corners/match5 obs.
Cards—0 obs.—0 obs.
Fouls15 fouls/match5 obs.13.8 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
MetricInter MiamiPhiladelphia Union
Goals scored3 goals/match10 obs.1.5 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed2 goals/match10 obs.2.1 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals2.64 xG/match10 obs.1.46 xG/match10 obs.
Shots17.7 shots/match10 obs.15.5 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target7.6 shots/match10 obs.4.7 shots/match10 obs.
Possession56.4%10 obs.43.7%10 obs.
Corners6.4 corners/match10 obs.5.3 corners/match10 obs.
Cards—1 obs.—1 obs.
Fouls13.2 fouls/match10 obs.15.7 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

15 / 15 matches
MetricInter MiamiPhiladelphia Union
Goals scored2.6 goals/match15 obs.1.2 goals/match15 obs.
Goals allowed1.87 goals/match15 obs.2 goals/match15 obs.
Expected goals2.41 xG/match12 obs.1.46 xG/match12 obs.
Shots16.3 shots/match15 obs.14.8 shots/match15 obs.
Shots on target6.87 shots/match15 obs.4.27 shots/match15 obs.
Possession57.7%15 obs.46%15 obs.
Corners5.87 corners/match15 obs.5.73 corners/match15 obs.
Cards3 cards/match4 obs.3.5 cards/match4 obs.
Fouls13.1 fouls/match15 obs.15.2 fouls/match15 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 9 matches
MetricInter MiamiPhiladelphia Union
Goals scored2.67 goals/match6 obs.1.67 goals/match9 obs.
Goals allowed2.17 goals/match6 obs.2.67 goals/match9 obs.
Expected goals3.29 xG/match6 obs.1.64 xG/match8 obs.
Shots20.7 shots/match6 obs.15.2 shots/match9 obs.
Shots on target8.83 shots/match6 obs.4.56 shots/match9 obs.
Possession60.5%6 obs.44.4%9 obs.
Corners7.83 corners/match6 obs.4.78 corners/match9 obs.
Cards—0 obs.—2 obs.
Fouls13.3 fouls/match6 obs.16.3 fouls/match9 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Goals scoredseason2.6 goals/match98th1.2 goals/match13th1.57 goals/match15 / 15
Goals allowedseason1.87 goals/match68th2 goals/match73th1.57 goals/match15 / 15
Expected goalsseason2.41 xG/match95th1.46 xG/match52th1.46 xG/match12 / 12
Expected goals allowedseason1.52 xG/match72th1.73 xG/match78th1.38 xG/match12 / 12
Shotsseason16.3 shots/match95th14.8 shots/match88th13.1 shots/match15 / 15
Shots allowedseason12.6 shots/match62th9.4 shots/match5th12.3 shots/match15 / 15
Shots on targetseason6.87 shots/match98th4.27 shots/match23th4.66 shots/match15 / 15
Shots on target allowedseason5 shots/match62th3.87 shots/match8th4.53 shots/match15 / 15
Possessionseason57.7%95th46%18th49.4%15 / 15
Cornersseason5.87 corners/match88th5.73 corners/match82th4.73 corners/match15 / 15
Corners allowedseason3.33 corners/match8th3 corners/match2th4.93 corners/match15 / 15
Cardsseason3 cards/match82th3.5 cards/match95th2.45 cards/match4 / 4
Foulsseason13.1 fouls/match75th15.2 fouls/match95th12.1 fouls/match15 / 15
Clean-sheet frequencyseason20%48th13%27th20%15 / 15
Scoring frequencyseason87%80th67%12th79%15 / 15

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures7.04 days—7.98 days——1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures2 matches—2 matches——1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
TeamsInter MiamiPhiladelphia Union
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 25 May 2026, 03:00 UTC · analysis-v3