PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026ScottsMiracle-Gro Field
2–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Columbus Crew won 2–0.

Shots
1016
Shots on target
42
Expected goals
1.691.46
Possession
58%42%

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots16 shotsColumbus Crew 10 shots, Atlanta United 16 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots2 shotsColumbus Crew 4 shots, Atlanta United 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.69 xG1.46 xGColumbus Crew 1.69 xG, Atlanta United 1.46 xG
  • Possession58%42%Columbus Crew 58%, Atlanta United 42%
  • Corners2 corners3 cornersColumbus Crew 2 corners, Atlanta United 3 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls13 foulsColumbus Crew 9 fouls, Atlanta United 13 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards4 cardsColumbus Crew 3 cards, Atlanta United 4 cards

Full time

What the match recorded

Columbus Crew beat Atlanta United FC 2–0. Recorded in this match (Columbus Crew – Atlanta United FC): shots 10–16, shots on target 4–2, expected goals 1.69–1.46, possession 58%–42%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Atlanta United FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atlanta United FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1 goal/match1.57 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.4 corners/match ●CornersColumbus Crew · Atlanta United FC5.21 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricColumbus CrewAtlanta United FCBaseline
Corners5.4 corners/match5.21 corners/match4.73 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

4Columbus Crew
0Draws
1Atlanta United
Atlanta United — Columbus Crew · Major League Soccer1–3
Atlanta United — Columbus Crew · Major League Soccer4–5
Columbus Crew — Atlanta United · Major League Soccer3–1
Atlanta United — Columbus Crew · Major League Soccer2–1
Columbus Crew — Atlanta United · Major League Soccer1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Columbus Crew favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Atlanta United in 2 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Columbus Crew15 matchesAtlanta United14 matches
1.4 goals/match ▲Goals scored15/141 goal/match
1.53 goals/match ▲Goals allowed15/141.64 goals/match
1.04 xG/matchExpected goals12/11▲ 1.29 xG/match
11.5 shots/matchShots15/14▲ 13.1 shots/match
4.07 shots/matchShots on target15/144 shots/match
57.3% ●Possession15/1453%
5.4 corners/match ●Corners15/145.21 corners/match
1.25 cards/matchCards4/42.5 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls15/1411.6 fouls/match

Style profile

Style profile

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Columbus Crew91.7
Atlanta United68.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Columbus Crew22.8
Atlanta United21.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Columbus Crew76.7
Atlanta United65.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Columbus Crew11.7
Atlanta United41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Columbus Crew9.2
Atlanta United44.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 63%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Columbus Crew68.3
Atlanta United65.0
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Columbus Crew31.2
Atlanta United40.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

  • Rest before fixture · Both teams: 7.9 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 match

Columbus Crew / Atlanta United

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples15 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 25 May 2026, 01:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsColumbus CrewAtlanta United
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headColumbus Crew — Atlanta United
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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