Major League Soccer · 2026Sun, 24 May 2026, 21:00 UTCFull time

Columbus Crew

2–0Full-time recap

Atlanta United FC

This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Atlanta United FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples15 / 14home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

Atlanta United FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atlanta United FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Home	Away	Baseline
Goals for	1.4 goals/match	1 goals/match	1.57 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Home	Away	Baseline
Corners	5.4 corners/match	5.21 corners/match	4.73 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Columbus Crew91.7

Atlanta United FC68.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Columbus Crew22.8

Atlanta United FC21.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Columbus Crew76.7

Atlanta United FC65.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Columbus Crew11.7

Atlanta United FC41.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Columbus Crew9.2

Atlanta United FC44.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 63%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Columbus Crew68.3

Atlanta United FC65

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Columbus Crew31.2

Atlanta United FC40.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

Metric	Columbus Crew	Atlanta United FC
Goals scored	1.4 goals/match5 obs.	1.4 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed	2 goals/match5 obs.	1.4 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals	1.14 xG/match5 obs.	1.12 xG/match5 obs.
Shots	10.2 shots/match5 obs.	14.8 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target	3 shots/match5 obs.	3.4 shots/match5 obs.
Possession	62.6%5 obs.	50.8%5 obs.
Corners	4 corners/match5 obs.	5.8 corners/match5 obs.
Cards	—0 obs.	—1 obs.
Fouls	8.8 fouls/match5 obs.	10.8 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

Metric	Columbus Crew	Atlanta United FC
Goals scored	1.6 goals/match10 obs.	0.9 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed	1.5 goals/match10 obs.	1.5 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals	1.16 xG/match10 obs.	1.15 xG/match10 obs.
Shots	11.9 shots/match10 obs.	14.1 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target	4.1 shots/match10 obs.	4.3 shots/match10 obs.
Possession	58.5%10 obs.	53.8%10 obs.
Corners	4.9 corners/match10 obs.	5.9 corners/match10 obs.
Cards	—1 obs.	—1 obs.
Fouls	10.1 fouls/match10 obs.	9.9 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

15 / 14 matches

Metric	Columbus Crew	Atlanta United FC
Goals scored	1.4 goals/match15 obs.	1 goals/match14 obs.
Goals allowed	1.53 goals/match15 obs.	1.64 goals/match14 obs.
Expected goals	1.04 xG/match12 obs.	1.29 xG/match11 obs.
Shots	11.5 shots/match15 obs.	13.1 shots/match14 obs.
Shots on target	4.07 shots/match15 obs.	4 shots/match14 obs.
Possession	57.3%15 obs.	53%14 obs.
Corners	5.4 corners/match15 obs.	5.21 corners/match14 obs.
Cards	1.25 cards/match4 obs.	2.5 cards/match4 obs.
Fouls	10.3 fouls/match15 obs.	11.6 fouls/match14 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 6 matches

Metric	Columbus Crew	Atlanta United FC
Goals scored	1.29 goals/match7 obs.	0.5 goals/match6 obs.
Goals allowed	0.86 goals/match7 obs.	1.5 goals/match6 obs.
Expected goals	1.06 xG/match6 obs.	1.19 xG/match4 obs.
Shots	12.1 shots/match7 obs.	12.8 shots/match6 obs.
Shots on target	4.29 shots/match7 obs.	3.17 shots/match6 obs.
Possession	58.4%7 obs.	50.2%6 obs.
Corners	4.71 corners/match7 obs.	6.17 corners/match6 obs.
Cards	—2 obs.	—2 obs.
Fouls	9.86 fouls/match7 obs.	13.3 fouls/match6 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Metric	Home	Away	Competition	Samples
Goals scoredseason	1.4 goals/match27th	1 goals/match3th	1.57 goals/match	15 / 14
Goals allowedseason	1.53 goals/match47th	1.64 goals/match57th	1.57 goals/match	15 / 14
Expected goalsseason	1.04 xG/match8th	1.29 xG/match38th	1.46 xG/match	12 / 11
Expected goals allowedseason	1.15 xG/match5th	1.37 xG/match48th	1.38 xG/match	12 / 11
Shotsseason	11.5 shots/match27th	13.1 shots/match52th	13.1 shots/match	15 / 14
Shots allowedseason	9.67 shots/match8th	11 shots/match18th	12.3 shots/match	15 / 14
Shots on targetseason	4.07 shots/match15th	4 shots/match10th	4.66 shots/match	15 / 14
Shots on target allowedseason	3.93 shots/match15th	4.14 shots/match28th	4.53 shots/match	15 / 14
Possessionseason	57.3%92th	53%68th	49.4%	15 / 14
Cornersseason	5.4 corners/match68th	5.21 corners/match65th	4.73 corners/match	15 / 14
Corners allowedseason	3.87 corners/match17th	4.79 corners/match45th	4.93 corners/match	15 / 14
Cardsseason	1.25 cards/match3th	2.5 cards/match53th	2.45 cards/match	4 / 4
Foulsseason	10.3 fouls/match15th	11.6 fouls/match35th	12.1 fouls/match	15 / 14
Clean-sheet frequencyseason	20%48th	7%15th	20%	15 / 14
Scoring frequencyseason	80%55th	57%2th	80%	15 / 14

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

Metric	Home	Away	Competition	Samples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures	7.9 days—	7.9 days—	—	1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures	2 matches—	1 matches—	—	1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.