PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Sat, 16 May 2026, 20:30 UTCFull timeSaputo StadiumFull-time recap
0–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricCF MontrealChicago Fire
Shots15 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Expected goals0.89 xG/match1.07 xG/match▲
Possession59%41%
Corners16 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards4 cards/match3 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Chicago Fire's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for CF Montreal, Chicago Fire. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Chicago Fire's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Chicago Fire's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.92 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match1.92 goals/match1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for CF Montreal, Chicago Fire.

2.88 days▲Rest daysCF Montreal · Chicago Fire2.88 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricCF MontrealChicago FireBaseline
Rest days2.88 days2.88 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Chicago Fire have a visible away split

moderate

Chicago Fire's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.3 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season14.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.3 shots/match14.8 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0CF Montreal
0Draws
1Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire — CF Montreal · Major League Soccer3–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

CF Montreal favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Chicago Fire in 8 · 4 too close

1.38 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 13/13▲1.92 goals/match
2.08 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 13/13▲1.15 goals/match
1.44 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 10/10▲2.04 xG/match
1.25 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 10/101.33 xG/match
12.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 13/13▲14.8 shots/match
12.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 13/1312 shots/match
4.46 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 13/13▲5.15 shots/match
5.08 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 13/13▲4.38 shots/match
47.8%Possessionseason · 13/1353.2%
5.15 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/134.69 corners/match
4.54 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 13/135.85 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCardsseason · 6/42.25 cards/match
14.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/1312.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
23%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/13▲46%
69%Scoring frequencyseason · 13/13▲92%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

CF Montreal43.3
Chicago Fire65
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

CF Montreal37.8
Chicago Fire79.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

CF Montreal35.6
Chicago Fire68.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

CF Montreal48.3
Chicago Fire68.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

CF Montreal68.3
Chicago Fire57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 65%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

CF Montreal58.3
Chicago Fire38.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

CF Montreal58.3
Chicago Fire67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.6 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
1.34 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲2.15 xG/match
15.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲18 shots/match
5.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.4 shots/match
47.4%Possession5/558.2%
7.4 corners/matchCorners5/56 corners/match
—Cards2/1—
13.4 fouls/matchFouls5/511.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.1 goals/match
1.9 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.3 goals/match
1.44 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲2.04 xG/match
14.4 shots/matchShots10/10▲16.2 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target10/105 shots/match
50.2%Possession10/1054%
5.8 corners/matchCorners10/104.4 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards3/1—
14.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

13 / 13 matches
1.38 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲1.92 goals/match
2.08 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲1.15 goals/match
1.44 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲2.04 xG/match
12.6 shots/matchShots13/13▲14.8 shots/match
4.46 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲5.15 shots/match
47.8%Possession13/1353.2%
5.15 corners/matchCorners13/134.69 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards6/42.25 cards/match
14.1 fouls/matchFouls13/1312.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 6 matches
1.67 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲1.83 goals/match
1.17 goals/matchGoals allowed6/61.17 goals/match
1.61 xG/matchExpected goals6/4▲1.93 xG/match
13.8 shots/match▲Shots6/611.3 shots/match
5.17 shots/match▲Shots on target6/64.67 shots/match
45.5%Possession6/651%
6.5 corners/matchCorners6/63.67 corners/match
—Cards1/2—
15.2 fouls/matchFouls6/613 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.88 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/12.88 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 17 May 2026, 00:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsCF MontrealChicago Fire
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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