PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Sun, 10 May 2026, 23:00 UTCFull timeAllianz FieldFull-time recap
2–2Full-time recap

Austin

LDLWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricMinnesota United FCAustin
Shots18 shots/match▲12 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match5 shots/match
Expected goals2.2 xG/match▲1.32 xG/match
Possession55%45%
Corners3 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards5 cards/match2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Austin's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Minnesota United FC's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Austin's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Austin's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.5 goals/match1.67 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Minnesota United FC show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Minnesota United FC's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.6 shots/match▲ShotsMinnesota United FC · Austin10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMinnesota United FCAustinBaseline
Shots13.6 shots/match10.8 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against13.5 shots/match17.8 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Minnesota United FC have a visible home split

moderate

Minnesota United FC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.8 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.8 shots/match13.6 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Minnesota United FC
1Draws
0Austin
Austin — Minnesota United FC · Major League Soccer2–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Minnesota United FC favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Austin in 2 · 4 too close

1.33 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 12/12▲1.5 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 12/121.75 goals/match
1.55 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 9/91.12 xG/match
1.52 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 9/92.38 xG/match
13.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 12/1210.8 shots/match
13.5 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 12/1217.8 shots/match
4.58 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 12/124.17 shots/match
4.92 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 12/126.92 shots/match
44.6%Possessionseason · 12/1247.2%
4.75 corners/matchCornersseason · 12/124.67 corners/match
5.42 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 12/126.83 corners/match
1.25 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/32 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/1211.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/1233%
75%Scoring frequencyseason · 12/12▲92%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Minnesota United FC18.3
Austin30
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Minnesota United FC46.1
Austin24.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Minnesota United FC44.4
Austin15
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Minnesota United FC85
Austin31.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Minnesota United FC39.1
Austin36.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 63%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Minnesota United FC51.7
Austin46.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Minnesota United FC60.9
Austin32.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
1.71 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.23 xG/match
15 shots/match▲Shots5/511.2 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.6 shots/match
49.2%Possession5/546%
5.2 corners/matchCorners5/53.4 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.8 fouls/matchFouls5/514 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.5 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.9 goals/match
1.55 xG/match▲Expected goals9/91.12 xG/match
13.6 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.2 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.5 shots/match
44.7%Possession10/1045.4%
4.4 corners/matchCorners10/103.8 corners/match
—Cards2/1—
13.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1012 fouls/match

Window

Season

12 / 12 matches
1.33 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲1.5 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/121.75 goals/match
1.55 xG/match▲Expected goals9/91.12 xG/match
13.6 shots/match▲Shots12/1210.8 shots/match
4.58 shots/match▲Shots on target12/124.17 shots/match
44.6%Possession12/1247.2%
4.75 corners/matchCorners12/124.67 corners/match
1.25 cards/matchCards4/32 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls12/1211.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 6 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/6▲1.67 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/62.83 goals/match
1.86 xG/match▲Expected goals4/51.14 xG/match
16.8 shots/match▲Shots5/68.83 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/63.17 shots/match
47.6%Possession5/638.5%
5.2 corners/matchCorners5/63.33 corners/match
—Cards1/1—
11.8 fouls/matchFouls5/612.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.98 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.06 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 11 May 2026, 03:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsMinnesota United FCAustin
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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