Toronto FC
Major League Soccer · 2026Toronto FC 2–4 Inter Miami CF · Major League Soccer
This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.
Match at a glance
Inter Miami CF won 2–4.
- Shots
- 13–11
- Shots on target
- 5–7
- Expected goals
- 0.99–1.71
- Possession
- 40%–60%
Full time
What the match recorded
Inter Miami beat Toronto FC 4–2. Recorded in this match (Toronto FC – Inter Miami): shots 13–11, shots on target 5–7, expected goals 0.99–1.71, possession 40%–60%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.
Pre-match record
What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.
Inter Miami's recent record differs from the season
weakInter Miami's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.
Window: last_5 versus season
| Metric | Last 5 | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 2.6 goals/match | 2.17 goals/match | 1.61 goals/match |
Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.
Both teams have elevated corners records
moderateEach team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.
Window: season
| Metric | Toronto FC | Inter Miami | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | 5.83 corners/match | 5.83 corners/match | 4.86 corners/match |
Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.
Inter Miami have a visible away split
moderateInter Miami's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.
Window: away
| Metric | Away only | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 12.9 shots/match | 15.8 shots/match | 12.5 shots/match |
Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.
This match
Match statistics
History
Head-to-head
Recent meetings between these teams.
Last 5 meetings
Metric comparison
Team comparison
Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.
Season: Toronto FC favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · Inter Miami CF in 7
Window
Season
Window
Last 10
Window
Last 5
Window
Home–Away
Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.
Possession control
Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.
Attacking volume
Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.
Defensive resistance
Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.
Directness proxy
Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.
Physicality
Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.
Set-piece relevance
Corner volume relative to competition peers.
Tempo and pressure proxy
Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.
- Matches in previous 14 days · Both teams: 2 matches
Toronto FC / Inter Miami CF
Evidence quality
How much supports this analysis
- Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.
Known unknowns
- Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
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