Major League Soccer · 2026Sat, 9 May 2026, 17:00 UTCFull timeBMO FieldFull-time recap

Toronto FC

DDDLD

2–4Full-time recap

Inter Miami

DWWDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Toronto FC	Inter Miami
Shots	13 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match	7 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.99 xG/match	1.71 xG/match▲
Possession	40%	60%
Corners	4 corners/match	4 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	12 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match▲	2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Inter Miami's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Inter Miami's recent record differs from the season

weak

Inter Miami's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.17 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.6 goals/match	2.17 goals/match	1.61 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.83 corners/match▲CornersToronto FC · Inter Miami5.83 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Toronto FC	Inter Miami	Baseline
Corners	5.83 corners/match	5.83 corners/match	4.86 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Inter Miami have a visible away split

moderate

Inter Miami's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

12.9 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season15.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	12.9 shots/match	15.8 shots/match	12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Toronto FC favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Inter Miami in 7 · 3 too close

1.67 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 12/12▲2.17 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 12/12▲1.75 goals/match

1.19 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 10/9▲2.07 xG/match

1.02 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 10/91.29 xG/match

11.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 12/12▲15.8 shots/match

10.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 12/1211.8 shots/match

4.75 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 12/12▲6.58 shots/match

4.42 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 12/124.83 shots/match

47.2%Possessionseason · 12/1258.6%

5.83 corners/matchCornersseason · 12/125.83 corners/match

5.75 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 12/12▲3.5 corners/match

2 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/43 cards/match

12.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/1212.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

8%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/12▲17%

92%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 12/1283%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Toronto FC31.7

Inter Miami91.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Toronto FC49.4

Inter Miami91.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Toronto FC52.8

Inter Miami47.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Toronto FC48.3

Inter Miami55

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Toronto FC52.5

Inter Miami77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 67%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Toronto FC76.7

Inter Miami76.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Toronto FC60

Inter Miami82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.6 goals/match

2.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.8 goals/match

1.45 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲2.1 xG/match

12.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲16 shots/match

4.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲7.4 shots/match

49.8%Possession5/556.2%

5.4 corners/matchCorners5/55.4 corners/match

—Cards0/1—

13.2 fouls/matchFouls5/514.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.2 goals/match

1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.6 goals/match

1.19 xG/matchExpected goals10/9▲2.07 xG/match

12.4 shots/matchShots10/10▲16.2 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6.8 shots/match

47.1%Possession10/1057.4%

6.2 corners/matchCorners10/105.9 corners/match

—Cards2/2—

12.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

12 / 12 matches

1.67 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲2.17 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲1.75 goals/match

1.19 xG/matchExpected goals10/9▲2.07 xG/match

11.8 shots/matchShots12/12▲15.8 shots/match

4.75 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲6.58 shots/match

47.2%Possession12/1258.6%

5.83 corners/matchCorners12/125.83 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards4/43 cards/match

12.7 fouls/matchFouls12/1212.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 8 matches

1.89 goals/matchGoals scored9/8▲2.25 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed9/8▲1.5 goals/match

1.25 xG/matchExpected goals9/5▲1.39 xG/match

12.6 shots/matchShots9/812.9 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on target9/8▲5.5 shots/match

47.6%Possession9/856.1%

6.11 corners/matchCorners9/84.25 corners/match

—Cards2/43 cards/match

12.8 fouls/matchFouls9/813.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.74 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples12 / 12home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 9 May 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

Inter Miami's recent record differs from the season

Both teams have elevated corners records

Inter Miami have a visible away split

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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