Major League Soccer · 2026Sun, 3 May 2026, 21:30 UTCFull timeQ2 StadiumFull-time recap

Austin

DLDLW

2–0Full-time recap

St. Louis City

WDDLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Austin	St. Louis City
Shots	14 shots/match	15 shots/match▲
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Expected goals	1.79 xG/match	3.16 xG/match▲
Possession	54%	46%
Corners	4 corners/match	6 corners/match
Fouls	13 fouls/match	18 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match	2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: St. Louis City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Austin's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

St. Louis City show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

St. Louis City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.7 shots/match▲ShotsAustin · St. Louis City14 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Austin	St. Louis City	Baseline
Shots	10.7 shots/match	14 shots/match	12.5 shots/match
Shots against	17.8 shots/match	11.2 shots/match	12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Austin's recent record differs from the season

weak

Austin's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.45 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.8 goals/match	1.45 goals/match	1.55 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Austin have a visible home split

moderate

Austin's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

12.8 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season10.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	12.8 shots/match	10.7 shots/match	12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Austin favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · St. Louis City in 7 · 4 too close

1.45 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 11/100.9 goals/match

1.73 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 11/101.8 goals/match

1.09 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 8/7▲1.56 xG/match

2.41 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 8/7▲1.34 xG/match

10.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 11/10▲14 shots/match

17.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 11/10▲11.2 shots/match

4.09 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 11/10▲4.7 shots/match

7.09 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 11/10▲4.8 shots/match

47.4%Possessionseason · 11/1050.5%

4.73 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/106.9 corners/match

7.18 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 11/10▲3.6 corners/match

2 cards/matchCardsseason · 3/31.33 cards/match

11.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1011.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

36%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/100%

91%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 11/1060%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Austin35

St. Louis City61.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Austin23.9

St. Louis City45

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Austin17.2

St. Louis City50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Austin35

St. Louis City65

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Austin40.9

St. Louis City23.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 64%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Austin45

St. Louis City95

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Austin30.4

St. Louis City64.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match

2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match

1.1 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.68 xG/match

11.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.4 shots/match

4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match

49.2%Possession5/550.6%

3.8 corners/matchCorners5/57.6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.6 fouls/matchFouls5/512.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match

1.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.8 goals/match

1.09 xG/matchExpected goals8/7▲1.56 xG/match

10.8 shots/matchShots10/10▲14 shots/match

3.9 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.7 shots/match

46.4%Possession10/1050.5%

4.5 corners/matchCorners10/106.9 corners/match

—Cards2/31.33 cards/match

12.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

11 / 10 matches

1.45 goals/match▲Goals scored11/100.9 goals/match

1.73 goals/matchGoals allowed11/101.8 goals/match

1.09 xG/matchExpected goals8/7▲1.56 xG/match

10.7 shots/matchShots11/10▲14 shots/match

4.09 shots/matchShots on target11/10▲4.7 shots/match

47.4%Possession11/1050.5%

4.73 corners/matchCorners11/106.9 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards3/31.33 cards/match

11.9 fouls/matchFouls11/1011.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 6 matches

1.33 goals/match▲Goals scored6/60.5 goals/match

0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/62 goals/match

1.09 xG/matchExpected goals4/5▲1.5 xG/match

12.8 shots/matchShots6/612.3 shots/match

5.17 shots/match▲Shots on target6/63.33 shots/match

55.8%Possession6/647.7%

6 corners/matchCorners6/66.33 corners/match

—Cards2/1—

11.5 fouls/matchFouls6/611.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.88 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.88 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples11 / 10home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Mon, 4 May 2026, 01:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

St. Louis City show a distinct attacking-volume record

Austin's recent record differs from the season

Austin have a visible home split

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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