PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Sat, 2 May 2026, 23:15 UTCFull timeNu StadiumFull-time recap
3–4Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricInter MiamiOrlando City SC
Shots26 shots/match▲13 shots/match
Shots on target10 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Expected goals3 xG/match▲1.91 xG/match
Possession65%35%
Corners10 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls18 fouls/match5 fouls/match
Yellow cards4 cards/match3 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Orlando City SC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Inter Miami's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Orlando City SC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Orlando City SC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.45 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.45 goals/match1.55 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Inter Miami show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Inter Miami's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.2 shots/match▲ShotsInter Miami · Orlando City SC11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricInter MiamiOrlando City SCBaseline
Shots16.2 shots/match11 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against11.7 shots/match17.7 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Inter Miami have a visible home split

weak

Inter Miami's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

21.5 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season16.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots21.5 shots/match16.2 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Inter Miami
0Draws
0Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC — Inter Miami · Major League Soccer2–4

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Inter Miami favored in 11 of 14 directional metrics · Orlando City SC in 0 · 3 too close

2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 11/111.45 goals/match
1.73 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 11/112.91 goals/match
2.11 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 8/81.12 xG/match
1.33 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 8/81.85 xG/match
16.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 11/1111 shots/match
11.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 11/1117.7 shots/match
6.55 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 11/114.45 shots/match
4.82 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 11/117.36 shots/match
58.5%Possessionseason · 11/1144.1%
6 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/113.73 corners/match
3.45 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 11/117 corners/match
3 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/33 cards/match
12.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1110.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
18%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/110%
82%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 11/1164%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Inter Miami95
Orlando City SC15
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Inter Miami89.5
Orlando City SC33.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Inter Miami51.1
Orlando City SC5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Inter Miami68.3
Orlando City SC48.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Inter Miami76.7
Orlando City SC51.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 64%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Inter Miami81.7
Orlando City SC11.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Inter Miami83.3
Orlando City SC22.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/52.2 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
2.19 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.07 xG/match
17 shots/match▲Shots5/510.8 shots/match
7.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.8 shots/match
55.2%Possession5/546.8%
7 corners/matchCorners5/53.4 corners/match
—Cards1/0—
13.6 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.5 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/103 goals/match
2.11 xG/match▲Expected goals8/81.12 xG/match
16.6 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.4 shots/match
6.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.3 shots/match
57.5%Possession10/1043.7%
6.3 corners/matchCorners10/103.6 corners/match
3.33 cards/matchCards3/2—
12.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

11 / 11 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored11/111.45 goals/match
1.73 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/112.91 goals/match
2.11 xG/match▲Expected goals8/81.12 xG/match
16.2 shots/match▲Shots11/1111 shots/match
6.55 shots/match▲Shots on target11/114.45 shots/match
58.5%Possession11/1144.1%
6 corners/matchCorners11/113.73 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards4/33 cards/match
12.7 fouls/matchFouls11/1110.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 6 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored4/61.17 goals/match
2.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/63.83 goals/match
2.91 xG/match▲Expected goals4/50.93 xG/match
21.5 shots/match▲Shots4/68.5 shots/match
8.75 shots/match▲Shots on target4/63.83 shots/match
63.5%Possession4/643.3%
9 corners/matchCorners4/64.17 corners/match
—Cards0/1—
11.8 fouls/matchFouls4/69 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.99 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.99 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 3 May 2026, 03:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsInter MiamiOrlando City SC
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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