Major League Soccer · 2026Sat, 18 Apr 2026, 23:30 UTCFull timeTQL StadiumFull-time recap

FC Cincinnati

LLWLD

3–3Full-time recap

Chicago Fire

DLWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	FC Cincinnati	Chicago Fire
Shots	23 shots/match▲	18 shots/match
Shots on target	9 shots/match▲	6 shots/match
Expected goals	3.71 xG/match▲	1.77 xG/match
Possession	55%	45%
Corners	9 corners/match	1 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	9 fouls/match
Yellow cards	4 cards/match	3 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FC Cincinnati's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Chicago Fire's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

FC Cincinnati's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Cincinnati's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.63 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.2 goals/match	1.63 goals/match	1.54 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Chicago Fire have a visible away split

weak

Chicago Fire's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.5 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	10.5 shots/match	12.8 shots/match	12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FC Cincinnati favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Chicago Fire in 6 · 3 too close

1.63 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 8/81.5 goals/match

2.38 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 8/8▲1 goals/match

1.62 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 6/5▲1.93 xG/match

1.37 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 6/51.62 xG/match

14.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 8/812.8 shots/match

14.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 8/8▲12.9 shots/match

5.63 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 8/84.38 shots/match

5.13 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 8/8▲4.63 shots/match

51.3%Possessionseason · 8/850%

6 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/83.88 corners/match

3.25 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 8/85.88 corners/match

2.67 cards/matchCardsseason · 6/32.67 cards/match

13.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/813.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

13%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/8▲50%

75%Scoring frequencyseason · 8/8▲88%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC Cincinnati65

Chicago Fire51.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC Cincinnati67.2

Chicago Fire41.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC Cincinnati25

Chicago Fire62.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC Cincinnati68.3

Chicago Fire55

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC Cincinnati69.2

Chicago Fire70.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 69%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC Cincinnati75

Chicago Fire18.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC Cincinnati72.9

Chicago Fire43.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.6 goals/match

3.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match

1.82 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.93 xG/match

15.4 shots/match▲Shots5/514.4 shots/match

7.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match

48.8%Possession5/549.8%

4.8 corners/matchCorners5/52.8 corners/match

3.75 cards/matchCards4/0—

15.2 fouls/matchFouls5/513.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

8 / 8 matches

1.63 goals/match▲Goals scored8/81.5 goals/match

2.38 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲1 goals/match

1.62 xG/matchExpected goals6/5▲1.93 xG/match

14.1 shots/match▲Shots8/812.8 shots/match

5.63 shots/match▲Shots on target8/84.38 shots/match

51.3%Possession8/850%

6 corners/matchCorners8/83.88 corners/match

2.67 cards/matchCards6/32.67 cards/match

13.3 fouls/matchFouls8/813.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

8 / 8 matches

1.63 goals/match▲Goals scored8/81.5 goals/match

2.38 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲1 goals/match

1.62 xG/matchExpected goals6/5▲1.93 xG/match

14.1 shots/match▲Shots8/812.8 shots/match

5.63 shots/match▲Shots on target8/84.38 shots/match

51.3%Possession8/850%

6 corners/matchCorners8/83.88 corners/match

2.67 cards/matchCards6/32.67 cards/match

13.3 fouls/matchFouls8/813.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches

2.25 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41.5 goals/match

1.75 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲1.5 goals/match

1.98 xG/matchExpected goals3/2—

15.3 shots/match▲Shots4/410.5 shots/match

5.5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/44 shots/match

53%Possession4/451.3%

5.75 corners/matchCorners4/42.75 corners/match

—Cards2/2—

13.8 fouls/matchFouls4/413.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.27 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.96 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples8 / 8home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 19 Apr 2026, 03:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

FC Cincinnati's recent record differs from the season

Chicago Fire have a visible away split

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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