PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Saputo Stadium

CF Montréal 4–1 New York Red Bulls · Major League Soccer

4–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

CF Montréal won 4–1.

Shots
98
Shots on target
61
Expected goals
2.870.56
Possession
32%68%

Full time

What the match recorded

CF Montreal beat New York Red Bulls 4–1. Recorded in this match (CF Montreal – New York Red Bulls): shots 9–8, shots on target 6–1, expected goals 2.87–0.56, possession 32%–68%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

CF Montreal's recent record differs from the season

weak

CF Montreal's last-five shots average is above their season average.

13.2 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots13.2 shots/match10.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

New York Red Bulls have recorded the higher season possession share.

48.1%PossessionCF Montreal · New York Red Bulls● 59%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricCF MontrealNew York Red BullsBaseline
Possession48.1%59%49.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots8 shotsCF Montréal 9 shots, New York Red Bulls 8 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots1 shotCF Montréal 6 shots, New York Red Bulls 1 shot
  • Expected goals2.87 xG0.56 xGCF Montréal 2.87 xG, New York Red Bulls 0.56 xG
  • Possession32%68%CF Montréal 32%, New York Red Bulls 68%
  • Corners2 corners7 cornersCF Montréal 2 corners, New York Red Bulls 7 corners
  • Fouls17 fouls12 foulsCF Montréal 17 fouls, New York Red Bulls 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards3 cardsCF Montréal 3 cards, New York Red Bulls 3 cards

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1CF Montréal
2Draws
2New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls — CF Montréal · Major League Soccer0–3
CF Montréal — New York Red Bulls · Major League Soccer0–2
New York Red Bulls — CF Montréal · Major League Soccer1–0
New York Red Bulls — CF Montréal · Major League Soccer2–2
CF Montréal — New York Red Bulls · Major League Soccer2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: CF Montréal favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · New York Red Bulls in 4 · 6 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

CF Montréal8 matchesNew York Red Bulls8 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored8/81.5 goals/match
2.5 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲ 2.38 goals/match
1.55 xG/matchExpected goals5/51.56 xG/match
10.8 shots/matchShots8/8▲ 14.8 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲ 5.75 shots/match
48.1%Possession8/8● 59%
3.75 corners/matchCorners8/8● 7.13 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards4/51.8 cards/match
14.5 fouls/matchFouls8/811.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Apr 2026, 22:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCF MontréalNew York Red Bulls
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headCF Montréal — New York Red Bulls
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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