PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026BMO Field

Toronto FC 3–3 Austin FC · Major League Soccer

3–3Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Toronto FC and Austin FC drew 3–3.

Shots
1812
Shots on target
116
Expected goals
3.111.48
Possession
46%54%

Full time

What the match recorded

Toronto FC and Austin drew 3–3. Recorded in this match (Toronto FC – Austin): shots 18–12, shots on target 11–6, expected goals 3.11–1.48, possession 46%–54%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Toronto FC's recent record differs from the season

weak

Toronto FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.63 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.63 goals/match1.54 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Austin have a visible away split

weak

Austin's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9 shots/match10.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Toronto FC show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Toronto FC's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12 shots/match ▲ShotsToronto FC · Austin10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricToronto FCAustinBaseline
Shots12 shots/match10.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against11.3 shots/match16.6 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots12 shotsToronto FC 18 shots, Austin FC 12 shots
  • Shots on target11 shots6 shotsToronto FC 11 shots, Austin FC 6 shots
  • Expected goals3.11 xG1.48 xGToronto FC 3.11 xG, Austin FC 1.48 xG
  • Possession46%54%Toronto FC 46%, Austin FC 54%
  • Corners6 corners5 cornersToronto FC 6 corners, Austin FC 5 corners
  • Fouls18 fouls11 foulsToronto FC 18 fouls, Austin FC 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards5 cards2 cardsToronto FC 5 cards, Austin FC 2 cards

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Toronto FC
0Draws
1Austin FC
Toronto FC — Austin FC · Major League Soccer2–1
Austin FC — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Toronto FC favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Austin FC in 1 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Toronto FC8 matchesAustin FC8 matches
1.63 goals/match ▲Goals scored8/81.38 goals/match
1.75 goals/matchGoals allowed8/81.75 goals/match
1.3 xG/match ▲Expected goals6/51.07 xG/match
12 shots/match ▲Shots8/810.8 shots/match
5.5 shots/match ▲Shots on target8/84.13 shots/match
45.4%Possession8/8● 48.8%
6.13 corners/match ●Corners8/85.5 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards4/32 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls8/810.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Apr 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsToronto FCAustin FC
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headToronto FC — Austin FC
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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