Major League Soccer · 2026Sun, 12 Apr 2026, 00:30 UTCFull timeSoldier FieldFull-time recap

Chicago Fire

WDLWW

1–0Full-time recap

Atlanta United FC

LLWDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Chicago Fire	Atlanta United FC
Shots	18 shots/match	19 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Expected goals	2.3 xG/match▲	1.26 xG/match
Possession	46%	54%
Corners	6 corners/match	11 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	5 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match	1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Atlanta United FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Chicago Fire's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Atlanta United FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atlanta United FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.86 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	0.86 goals/match	1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Chicago Fire have a visible home split

weak

Chicago Fire's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	15 shots/match	12 shots/match	12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Chicago Fire favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Atlanta United FC in 1 · 7 too close

1.29 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 7/70.86 goals/match

0.71 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 7/71.71 goals/match

1.97 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 4/41.39 xG/match

1.1 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 4/41.53 xG/match

12 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 7/710.9 shots/match

11.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 7/712 shots/match

4.14 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 7/73.71 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 7/7▲3.71 shots/match

50.7%Possessionseason · 7/755.3%

4.29 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/74.57 corners/match

5.43 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 7/75.43 corners/match

2.67 cards/matchCardsseason · 3/32.33 cards/match

14.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/712.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

57%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/714%

86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 7/743%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Chicago Fire63.3

Atlanta United FC81.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Chicago Fire37.2

Atlanta United FC16.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Chicago Fire75.6

Atlanta United FC58.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Chicago Fire41.7

Atlanta United FC11.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Chicago Fire79.2

Atlanta United FC58.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 71%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Chicago Fire25

Atlanta United FC40

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Chicago Fire47.5

Atlanta United FC32.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.2 goals/match

0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match

1.97 xG/match▲Expected goals4/41.39 xG/match

12.2 shots/matchShots5/512 shots/match

3 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.4 shots/match

50.8%Possession5/557.4%

3.2 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match

—Cards1/1—

13.6 fouls/matchFouls5/59.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches

1.29 goals/match▲Goals scored7/70.86 goals/match

0.71 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71.71 goals/match

1.97 xG/match▲Expected goals4/41.39 xG/match

12 shots/match▲Shots7/710.9 shots/match

4.14 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73.71 shots/match

50.7%Possession7/755.3%

4.29 corners/matchCorners7/74.57 corners/match

2.67 cards/matchCards3/32.33 cards/match

14.3 fouls/matchFouls7/712.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches

1.29 goals/match▲Goals scored7/70.86 goals/match

0.71 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71.71 goals/match

1.97 xG/match▲Expected goals4/41.39 xG/match

12 shots/match▲Shots7/710.9 shots/match

4.14 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73.71 shots/match

50.7%Possession7/755.3%

4.29 corners/matchCorners7/74.57 corners/match

2.67 cards/matchCards3/32.33 cards/match

14.3 fouls/matchFouls7/712.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 3 matches

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored4/30 goals/match

0.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/31.67 goals/match

1.78 xG/matchExpected goals3/1—

15 shots/match▲Shots4/311.7 shots/match

4.75 shots/match▲Shots on target4/33.33 shots/match

48.8%Possession4/351.3%

5 corners/matchCorners4/35.67 corners/match

—Cards1/2—

13.8 fouls/matchFouls4/314 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.04 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples7 / 7home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 12 Apr 2026, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

Atlanta United FC's recent record differs from the season

Chicago Fire have a visible home split

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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