PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Sun, 12 Apr 2026, 00:30 UTCFull timeToyota StadiumFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFC DallasSt. Louis City
Shots11 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Expected goals1.36 xG/match▲1.32 xG/match
Possession41%59%
Corners5 corners/match10 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: St. Louis City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

St. Louis City's recent record differs from the season

weak

St. Louis City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.86 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match0.86 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FC Dallas favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · St. Louis City in 2 · 7 too close

2.14 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 7/70.86 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 7/7▲1.29 goals/match
1.82 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 4/41.23 xG/match
1.48 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 4/41.1 xG/match
13 shots/matchShotsseason · 7/713.1 shots/match
9.14 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 7/710.9 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 7/75 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 7/74.29 shots/match
44.4%Possessionseason · 7/750.3%
4.43 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/76.29 corners/match
5.43 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 7/7▲3.43 corners/match
2 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/31.33 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/711 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
29%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/70%
71%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 7/757%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC Dallas15
St. Louis City51.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC Dallas70
St. Louis City45.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC Dallas73.9
St. Louis City68.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC Dallas75
St. Louis City61.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC Dallas55.8
St. Louis City18.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 71%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC Dallas31.7
St. Louis City80
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC Dallas55.4
St. Louis City58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
1.82 xG/match▲Expected goals4/41.23 xG/match
13.8 shots/match▲Shots5/513 shots/match
6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.6 shots/match
43.8%Possession5/553%
4.8 corners/matchCorners5/57.2 corners/match
—Cards2/1—
13.6 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches
2.14 goals/match▲Goals scored7/70.86 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲1.29 goals/match
1.82 xG/match▲Expected goals4/41.23 xG/match
13 shots/matchShots7/713.1 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target7/75 shots/match
44.4%Possession7/750.3%
4.43 corners/matchCorners7/76.29 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards4/31.33 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls7/711 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches
2.14 goals/match▲Goals scored7/70.86 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲1.29 goals/match
1.82 xG/match▲Expected goals4/41.23 xG/match
13 shots/matchShots7/713.1 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target7/75 shots/match
44.4%Possession7/750.3%
4.43 corners/matchCorners7/76.29 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards4/31.33 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls7/711 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 4 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/40.5 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/4▲1.5 goals/match
1.82 xG/match▲Expected goals3/31.26 xG/match
12.4 shots/match▲Shots5/411.8 shots/match
4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/43.25 shots/match
44.6%Possession5/447.5%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/46 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards3/1—
14.2 fouls/matchFouls5/410.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.04 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 12 Apr 2026, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFC DallasSt. Louis City
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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