PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026BMO Field

Toronto FC 1–1 FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer

1–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Toronto FC and FC Cincinnati drew 1–1.

Shots
97
Shots on target
24
Expected goals
0.430.66
Possession
49%51%

Full time

What the match recorded

Toronto FC and FC Cincinnati drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Toronto FC – FC Cincinnati): shots 9–7, shots on target 2–4, expected goals 0.43–0.66, possession 49%–51%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.14 corners/match ●CornersToronto FC · FC Cincinnati5.57 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricToronto FCFC CincinnatiBaseline
Corners6.14 corners/match5.57 corners/match5 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots7 shotsToronto FC 9 shots, FC Cincinnati 7 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots4 shotsToronto FC 2 shots, FC Cincinnati 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.43 xG0.66 xGToronto FC 0.43 xG, FC Cincinnati 0.66 xG
  • Possession49%51%Toronto FC 49%, FC Cincinnati 51%
  • Corners6 corners4 cornersToronto FC 6 corners, FC Cincinnati 4 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls20 foulsToronto FC 14 fouls, FC Cincinnati 20 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards3 cardsToronto FC 2 cards, FC Cincinnati 3 cards

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Toronto FC
1Draws
3FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer0–1
Toronto FC — FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer0–1
FC Cincinnati — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer2–0
Toronto FC — FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer3–4
FC Cincinnati — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Toronto FC favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · FC Cincinnati in 4 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Toronto FC7 matchesFC Cincinnati7 matches
1.43 goals/matchGoals scored7/71.43 goals/match
1.57 goals/match ▲Goals allowed7/72.29 goals/match
0.94 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲ 1.21 xG/match
11.1 shots/matchShots7/7▲ 12.9 shots/match
4.71 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲ 5.14 shots/match
45.3%Possession7/7● 50.7%
6.14 corners/match ●Corners7/75.57 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards4/62.67 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls7/713.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 11 Apr 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsToronto FCFC Cincinnati
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headToronto FC — FC Cincinnati
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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