PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Sat, 4 Apr 2026, 23:30 UTCFull timeSports Illustrated StadiumFull-time recap
4–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNew York Red BullsFC Cincinnati
Shots18 shots/match▲17 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match6 shots/match
Expected goals1.8 xG/match2.05 xG/match▲
Possession52%48%
Corners2 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: New York Red Bulls's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: New York Red Bulls's home-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

New York Red Bulls show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

New York Red Bulls's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

17.5 shots/match▲ShotsNew York Red Bulls · FC Cincinnati13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNew York Red BullsFC CincinnatiBaseline
Shots17.5 shots/match13.8 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against12.7 shots/match14.3 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

New York Red Bulls have a visible home split

weak

New York Red Bulls's home-only shot average is below their full-season average.

14 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season17.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14 shots/match17.5 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

7.83 corners/match▲CornersNew York Red Bulls · FC Cincinnati5.83 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricNew York Red BullsFC CincinnatiBaseline
Corners7.83 corners/match5.83 corners/match5 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

New York Red Bulls favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · FC Cincinnati in 2 · 6 too close

1.5 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 6/61.5 goals/match
2.17 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 6/62.5 goals/match
2.16 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 3/41.34 xG/match
1.85 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 3/41.51 xG/match
17.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 6/613.8 shots/match
12.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 6/614.3 shots/match
7.17 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 6/65.33 shots/match
6 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 6/6▲5.5 shots/match
59.8%Possessionseason · 6/650.7%
7.83 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/65.83 corners/match
4.67 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 6/6▲3.17 corners/match
1.8 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 5/52.4 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/612.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
17%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/617%
83%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 6/667%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

New York Red Bulls91.7
FC Cincinnati58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

New York Red Bulls81.1
FC Cincinnati62.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

New York Red Bulls27.2
FC Cincinnati19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

New York Red Bulls85
FC Cincinnati68.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

New York Red Bulls30.8
FC Cincinnati60.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 92%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

New York Red Bulls95
FC Cincinnati75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

New York Red Bulls80.4
FC Cincinnati67.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.4 goals/match
2.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/53 goals/match
2.16 xG/match▲Expected goals3/41.34 xG/match
16.6 shots/match▲Shots5/514.6 shots/match
6 shots/matchShots on target5/55.8 shots/match
61.4%Possession5/550%
7.6 corners/matchCorners5/56 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards4/42.75 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/513 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

6 / 6 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored6/61.5 goals/match
2.17 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/62.5 goals/match
2.16 xG/match▲Expected goals3/41.34 xG/match
17.5 shots/match▲Shots6/613.8 shots/match
7.17 shots/match▲Shots on target6/65.33 shots/match
59.8%Possession6/650.7%
7.83 corners/matchCorners6/65.83 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls6/612.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

6 / 6 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored6/61.5 goals/match
2.17 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/62.5 goals/match
2.16 xG/match▲Expected goals3/41.34 xG/match
17.5 shots/match▲Shots6/613.8 shots/match
7.17 shots/match▲Shots on target6/65.33 shots/match
59.8%Possession6/650.7%
7.83 corners/matchCorners6/65.83 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls6/612.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 3 matches
1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored3/31 goals/match
1.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/33.67 goals/match
—Expected goals1/2—
14 shots/matchShots3/3▲15 shots/match
4.67 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲6.33 shots/match
61.3%Possession3/349%
6.33 corners/matchCorners3/37 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards3/32 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls3/310.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113.3 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Apr 2026, 03:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNew York Red BullsFC Cincinnati
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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