PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Sat, 4 Apr 2026, 23:30 UTCFull timeBank of America StadiumFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricCharlottePhiladelphia Union
Shots9 shots/match17 shots/match▲
Shots on target5 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals1.46 xG/match▲1.41 xG/match
Possession58%42%
Corners6 corners/match7 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match22 fouls/match
Yellow cards4 cards/match4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Charlotte's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Philadelphia Union's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Charlotte have a visible home split

weak

Charlotte's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.8 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.8 shots/match11.8 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Philadelphia Union's recent record differs from the season

weak

Philadelphia Union's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.67 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match0.67 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Philadelphia Union show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Philadelphia Union's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.8 shots/match▲ShotsCharlotte · Philadelphia Union14 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCharlottePhiladelphia UnionBaseline
Shots11.8 shots/match14 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against15.2 shots/match9.67 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Charlotte favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Philadelphia Union in 4 · 6 too close

2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 6/60.67 goals/match
1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 6/61.83 goals/match
1.66 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 3/31.46 xG/match
1.67 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 3/32.26 xG/match
11.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 6/6▲14 shots/match
15.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 6/6▲9.67 shots/match
5.83 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 6/63.33 shots/match
6.17 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 6/6▲4.33 shots/match
51%Possessionseason · 6/649.2%
5 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/66.67 corners/match
5.5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 6/6▲3 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/34 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/615.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
17%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/60%
67%Scoring frequencyseason · 6/667%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Charlotte61.7
Philadelphia Union48.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Charlotte67.8
Philadelphia Union30
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Charlotte36.1
Philadelphia Union56.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Charlotte41.7
Philadelphia Union75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Charlotte35
Philadelphia Union96.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 75%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Charlotte48.3
Philadelphia Union86.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Charlotte48.3
Philadelphia Union67.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
1.66 xG/match▲Expected goals3/31.46 xG/match
12.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.4 shots/match
6.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match
51.6%Possession5/548.8%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/57 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards3/2—
10.4 fouls/matchFouls5/515.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

6 / 6 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored6/60.67 goals/match
1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.83 goals/match
1.66 xG/match▲Expected goals3/31.46 xG/match
11.8 shots/matchShots6/6▲14 shots/match
5.83 shots/match▲Shots on target6/63.33 shots/match
51%Possession6/649.2%
5 corners/matchCorners6/66.67 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards4/34 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls6/615.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

6 / 6 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored6/60.67 goals/match
1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.83 goals/match
1.66 xG/match▲Expected goals3/31.46 xG/match
11.8 shots/matchShots6/6▲14 shots/match
5.83 shots/match▲Shots on target6/63.33 shots/match
51%Possession6/649.2%
5 corners/matchCorners6/66.67 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards4/34 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls6/615.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 3 matches
2.75 goals/match▲Goals scored4/30.67 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/32 goals/match
1.66 xG/matchExpected goals3/2—
14.8 shots/matchShots4/314.3 shots/match
7.75 shots/match▲Shots on target4/33 shots/match
55.3%Possession4/350.3%
6 corners/matchCorners4/36 corners/match
—Cards2/1—
9.5 fouls/matchFouls4/316.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114.1 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Apr 2026, 03:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsCharlottePhiladelphia Union
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match