Major League Soccer · 2026Sat, 14 Mar 2026, 23:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Orlando City SC

LLL

2–1Full-time recap

CF Montreal

LLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Orlando City SC	CF Montreal
Shots	15 shots/match▲	14 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	2.34 xG/match▲	0.76 xG/match
Possession	35%	65%
Corners	3 corners/match	10 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	14 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match	0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Orlando City SC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: CF Montreal have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Orlando City SC have a visible home split

weak

Orlando City SC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	14 shots/match	11.5 shots/match	12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

CF Montreal have recorded the higher season possession share.

37.8%▲PossessionOrlando City SC · CF Montreal46.3%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.5 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Orlando City SC	CF Montreal	Baseline
Possession	37.8%	46.3%	50.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Orlando City SC favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · CF Montreal in 0 · 14 too close

1.25 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 4/41 goals/match

3 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 4/42.5 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 1/1—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 1/1—

11.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 4/48.5 shots/match

16 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 4/413.5 shots/match

4.5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 4/43 shots/match

7.5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 4/47 shots/match

37.8%Possessionseason · 4/446.3%

3 corners/matchCornersseason · 4/44.75 corners/match

8 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 4/47 corners/match

3 cards/matchCardsseason · 3/31.67 cards/match

10.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 4/412.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 4/425%

75%Scoring frequencyseason · 4/450%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Orlando City SC1.7

CF Montreal32.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Orlando City SC38.5

CF Montreal12.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Orlando City SC4

CF Montreal14.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Orlando City SC87.9

CF Montreal12.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Orlando City SC56.5

CF Montreal40.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 88%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Orlando City SC3.4

CF Montreal34.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Orlando City SC25.9

CF Montreal25.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

4 / 4 matches

1.25 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41 goals/match

3 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲2.5 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

11.5 shots/match▲Shots4/48.5 shots/match

4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/43 shots/match

37.8%Possession4/446.3%

3 corners/matchCorners4/44.75 corners/match

3 cards/matchCards3/31.67 cards/match

10.3 fouls/matchFouls4/412.3 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

4 / 4 matches

1.25 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41 goals/match

3 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲2.5 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

11.5 shots/match▲Shots4/48.5 shots/match

4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/43 shots/match

37.8%Possession4/446.3%

3 corners/matchCorners4/44.75 corners/match

3 cards/matchCards3/31.67 cards/match

10.3 fouls/matchFouls4/412.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

4 / 4 matches

1.25 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41 goals/match

3 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲2.5 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

11.5 shots/match▲Shots4/48.5 shots/match

4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/43 shots/match

37.8%Possession4/446.3%

3 corners/matchCorners4/44.75 corners/match

3 cards/matchCards3/31.67 cards/match

10.3 fouls/matchFouls4/412.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 4 matches

1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored3/41 goals/match

2.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/42.5 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

14 shots/match▲Shots3/48.5 shots/match

5.67 shots/match▲Shots on target3/43 shots/match

40.7%Possession3/446.3%

3.33 corners/matchCorners3/44.75 corners/match

—Cards2/31.67 cards/match

11.3 fouls/matchFouls3/412.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.17 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.12 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited

Season samples4 / 4home / away teams

Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 15 Mar 2026, 03:30 UTC · analysis-v4