PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

Orlando City SC 2–1 CF Montréal · Major League Soccer

2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Orlando City SC won 2–1.

Shots
1514
Shots on target
64
Expected goals
2.340.76
Possession
35%65%

Full time

What the match recorded

Orlando City SC beat CF Montreal 2–1. Recorded in this match (Orlando City SC – CF Montreal): shots 15–14, shots on target 6–4, expected goals 2.34–0.76, possession 35%–65%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Orlando City SC have a visible home split

weak

Orlando City SC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14 shots/match11.5 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

CF Montreal have recorded the higher season possession share.

37.8%PossessionOrlando City SC · CF Montreal● 46.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricOrlando City SCCF MontrealBaseline
Possession37.8%46.3%50.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots14 shotsOrlando City SC 15 shots, CF Montréal 14 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots4 shotsOrlando City SC 6 shots, CF Montréal 4 shots
  • Expected goals2.34 xG0.76 xGOrlando City SC 2.34 xG, CF Montréal 0.76 xG
  • Possession35%65%Orlando City SC 35%, CF Montréal 65%
  • Corners3 corners10 cornersOrlando City SC 3 corners, CF Montréal 10 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls14 foulsOrlando City SC 11 fouls, CF Montréal 14 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card0 cardsOrlando City SC 1 card, CF Montréal 0 cards

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Orlando City SC
4Draws
0CF Montréal
Orlando City SC — CF Montréal · Major League Soccer1–1
CF Montréal — Orlando City SC · Major League Soccer0–0
CF Montréal — Orlando City SC · Major League Soccer2–2
Orlando City SC — CF Montréal · Major League Soccer0–0
Orlando City SC — CF Montréal · Major League Soccer3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Orlando City SC favored in 0 of 9 directional metrics · CF Montréal in 0 · 9 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Orlando City SC4 matchesCF Montréal4 matches
1.25 goals/match ▲Goals scored4/41 goal/match
3 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲ 2.5 goals/match
11.5 shots/match ▲Shots4/48.5 shots/match
4.5 shots/match ▲Shots on target4/43 shots/match
37.8%Possession4/4● 46.3%
3 corners/matchCorners4/4● 4.75 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards3/31.67 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls4/412.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 15 Mar 2026, 03:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingShots per match rankingShots on target per match ranking
TeamsOrlando City SCCF Montréal
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headOrlando City SC — CF Montréal
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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