PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Sun, 8 Mar 2026, 20:30 UTCFull timeSports Illustrated StadiumFull-time recap
0–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNew York Red BullsCF Montreal
Shots12 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match4 shots/match
Possession67%33%
Corners11 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: CF Montreal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: New York Red Bulls have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

CF Montreal show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

CF Montreal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

15.3 shots/match▲ShotsNew York Red Bulls · CF Montreal6.67 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNew York Red BullsCF MontrealBaseline
Shots15.3 shots/match6.67 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against10.7 shots/match13 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

New York Red Bulls have recorded the higher season possession share.

61.3%▲PossessionNew York Red Bulls · CF Montreal40%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 21.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricNew York Red BullsCF MontrealBaseline
Possession61.3%40%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

New York Red Bulls favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · CF Montreal in 0 · 14 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 3/31 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 3/32.67 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
15.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 3/36.67 shots/match
10.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 3/313 shots/match
7 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 3/32.67 shots/match
4.33 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 3/37.33 shots/match
61.3%Possessionseason · 3/340%
8.67 corners/matchCornersseason · 3/33 corners/match
5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 3/38.33 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCardsseason · 3/31.67 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 3/311.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 3/333%
67%Scoring frequencyseason · 3/333%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

New York Red Bulls87.5
CF Montreal8.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

New York Red Bulls74.4
CF Montreal13.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

New York Red Bulls52.4
CF Montreal17.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

New York Red Bulls58.9
CF Montreal5.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

New York Red Bulls41.2
CF Montreal35.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

New York Red Bulls98.2
CF Montreal5.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

New York Red Bulls86.2
CF Montreal14.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

3 / 3 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored3/31 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/32.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.3 shots/match▲Shots3/36.67 shots/match
7 shots/match▲Shots on target3/32.67 shots/match
61.3%Possession3/340%
8.67 corners/matchCorners3/33 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards3/31.67 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls3/311.7 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

3 / 3 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored3/31 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/32.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.3 shots/match▲Shots3/36.67 shots/match
7 shots/match▲Shots on target3/32.67 shots/match
61.3%Possession3/340%
8.67 corners/matchCorners3/33 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards3/31.67 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls3/311.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

3 / 3 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored3/31 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/32.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.3 shots/match▲Shots3/36.67 shots/match
7 shots/match▲Shots on target3/32.67 shots/match
61.3%Possession3/340%
8.67 corners/matchCorners3/33 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards3/31.67 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls3/311.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

2 / 3 matches
—Goals scored2/31 goals/match
—Goals allowed2/32.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
—Shots2/36.67 shots/match
—Shots on target2/32.67 shots/match
—Possession2/340%
—Corners2/33 corners/match
—Cards2/31.67 cards/match
—Fouls2/311.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.04 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited
Season samples3 / 3home / away teams
Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 9 Mar 2026, 00:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNew York Red BullsCF Montreal
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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