PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026TQL Stadium

FC Cincinnati 0–1 Toronto FC · Major League Soccer

0–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Toronto FC won 0–1.

Shots
1311
Shots on target
25
Expected goals
0.650.69
Possession
57%43%

Full time

What the match recorded

Toronto FC beat FC Cincinnati 1–0. Recorded in this match (FC Cincinnati – Toronto FC): shots 13–11, shots on target 2–5, expected goals 0.65–0.69, possession 57%–43%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

FC Cincinnati have recorded the higher season possession share.

55.3% ●PossessionFC Cincinnati · Toronto FC46%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFC CincinnatiToronto FCBaseline
Possession55.3%46%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots11 shotsFC Cincinnati 13 shots, Toronto FC 11 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots5 shotsFC Cincinnati 2 shots, Toronto FC 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.65 xG0.69 xGFC Cincinnati 0.65 xG, Toronto FC 0.69 xG
  • Possession57%43%FC Cincinnati 57%, Toronto FC 43%
  • Corners7 corners7 cornersFC Cincinnati 7 corners, Toronto FC 7 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls11 foulsFC Cincinnati 14 fouls, Toronto FC 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards2 cardsFC Cincinnati 2 cards, Toronto FC 2 cards

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

4FC Cincinnati
1Draws
0Toronto FC
Toronto FC — FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer0–1
FC Cincinnati — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer2–0
Toronto FC — FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer3–4
FC Cincinnati — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer0–0
Toronto FC — FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer2–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Cincinnati favored in 0 of 9 directional metrics · Toronto FC in 0 · 9 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Cincinnati3 matchesToronto FC3 matches
0.67 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲ 1 goal/match
0.67 goals/match ▲Goals allowed3/32 goals/match
12 shots/match ▲Shots3/39.33 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲ 4 shots/match
55.3% ●Possession3/346%
8 corners/match ●Corners3/35 corners/match
10 fouls/matchFouls3/312.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples3 / 3home / away teams
Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against, cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 9 Mar 2026, 03:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingShots per match rankingShots on target per match ranking
TeamsFC CincinnatiToronto FC
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headFC Cincinnati — Toronto FC
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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