PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Sun, 8 Mar 2026, 03:30 UTCFull timeProvidence ParkFull-time recap
1–4Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricPortland TimbersVancouver Whitecaps
Shots7 shots/match16 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match8 shots/match▲
Possession44%56%
Corners3 corners/match7 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Vancouver Whitecaps's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Vancouver Whitecaps have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Vancouver Whitecaps show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Vancouver Whitecaps's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.3 shots/match▲ShotsPortland Timbers · Vancouver Whitecaps14.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricPortland TimbersVancouver WhitecapsBaseline
Shots10.3 shots/match14.3 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against18.7 shots/match7.33 shots/match11.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Vancouver Whitecaps have recorded the higher season possession share.

45.3%▲PossessionPortland Timbers · Vancouver Whitecaps58.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricPortland TimbersVancouver WhitecapsBaseline
Possession45.3%58.3%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Portland Timbers favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Vancouver Whitecaps in 0 · 14 too close

1.33 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 3/32.67 goals/match
2.67 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 3/30.33 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 3/314.3 shots/match
18.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 3/37.33 shots/match
3.67 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 3/35.67 shots/match
7.33 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 3/32 shots/match
45.3%Possessionseason · 3/358.3%
5 corners/matchCornersseason · 3/36.33 corners/match
9 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 3/33 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCardsseason · 3/32 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 3/314 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 3/367%
67%Scoring frequencyseason · 3/3100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Portland Timbers27.1
Vancouver Whitecaps85.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Portland Timbers27.8
Vancouver Whitecaps89.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Portland Timbers6.2
Vancouver Whitecaps89.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Portland Timbers35.4
Vancouver Whitecaps52.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Portland Timbers44.8
Vancouver Whitecaps62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Portland Timbers45.8
Vancouver Whitecaps79.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Portland Timbers26
Vancouver Whitecaps82.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

3 / 3 matches
1.33 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲2.67 goals/match
2.67 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲0.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.3 shots/matchShots3/3▲14.3 shots/match
3.67 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲5.67 shots/match
45.3%Possession3/358.3%
5 corners/matchCorners3/36.33 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards3/32 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls3/314 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

3 / 3 matches
1.33 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲2.67 goals/match
2.67 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲0.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.3 shots/matchShots3/3▲14.3 shots/match
3.67 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲5.67 shots/match
45.3%Possession3/358.3%
5 corners/matchCorners3/36.33 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards3/32 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls3/314 fouls/match

Window

Season

3 / 3 matches
1.33 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲2.67 goals/match
2.67 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲0.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.3 shots/matchShots3/3▲14.3 shots/match
3.67 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲5.67 shots/match
45.3%Possession3/358.3%
5 corners/matchCorners3/36.33 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards3/32 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls3/314 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

2 / 1 matches
—Goals scored2/1—
—Goals allowed2/1—
—Expected goals0/0—
—Shots2/1—
—Shots on target2/1—
—Possession2/1—
—Corners2/1—
—Cards2/1—
—Fouls2/1—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.25 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.04 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited
Season samples3 / 3home / away teams
Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Mar 2026, 07:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsPortland TimbersVancouver Whitecaps
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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