PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026BMO Field

Toronto FC 1–1 New York Red Bulls · Major League Soccer

1–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Toronto FC and New York Red Bulls drew 1–1.

Shots
1218
Shots on target
78
Expected goals
0.962.06
Possession
32%68%

Full time

What the match recorded

Toronto FC and New York Red Bulls drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Toronto FC – New York Red Bulls): shots 12–18, shots on target 7–8, expected goals 0.96–2.06, possession 32%–68%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

New York Red Bulls show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

New York Red Bulls's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10 shots/match ▲ShotsToronto FC · New York Red Bulls16 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricToronto FCNew York Red BullsBaseline
Shots10 shots/match16 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against14.5 shots/match11 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

New York Red Bulls have recorded the higher season possession share.

42.5%PossessionToronto FC · New York Red Bulls● 63%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 20.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricToronto FCNew York Red BullsBaseline
Possession42.5%63%49.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots18 shotsToronto FC 12 shots, New York Red Bulls 18 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots8 shotsToronto FC 7 shots, New York Red Bulls 8 shots
  • Expected goals0.96 xG2.06 xGToronto FC 0.96 xG, New York Red Bulls 2.06 xG
  • Possession32%68%Toronto FC 32%, New York Red Bulls 68%
  • Corners5 corners11 cornersToronto FC 5 corners, New York Red Bulls 11 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls13 foulsToronto FC 10 fouls, New York Red Bulls 13 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card2 cardsToronto FC 1 card, New York Red Bulls 2 cards

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Toronto FC
1Draws
4New York Red Bulls
Toronto FC — New York Red Bulls · Major League Soccer1–1
New York Red Bulls — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer2–1
Toronto FC — New York Red Bulls · Major League Soccer1–4
New York Red Bulls — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer3–0
New York Red Bulls — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Toronto FC favored in 0 of 9 directional metrics · New York Red Bulls in 0 · 9 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Toronto FC4 matchesNew York Red Bulls4 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored4/41 goal/match
1.75 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲ 1.25 goals/match
10 shots/matchShots4/4▲ 16 shots/match
4.75 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲ 7.25 shots/match
42.5%Possession4/4● 63%
5 corners/matchCorners4/4● 9.25 corners/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls4/412.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against, cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Mar 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingShots per match rankingShots on target per match ranking
TeamsToronto FCNew York Red Bulls
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headToronto FC — New York Red Bulls
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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