Major League Soccer · 2026Sat, 14 Mar 2026, 19:15 UTCFull timeMercedes-Benz StadiumFull-time recap

Atlanta United FC

LLL

3–1Full-time recap

Philadelphia Union

LLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Atlanta United FC	Philadelphia Union
Shots	11 shots/match	14 shots/match▲
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	2.79 xG/match▲	2.13 xG/match
Possession	42%	58%
Corners	4 corners/match	6 corners/match
Fouls	15 fouls/match	12 fouls/match
Yellow cards	4 cards/match	0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline. A second useful context is: Atlanta United FC's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

16 fouls/match▲FoulsAtlanta United FC · Philadelphia Union15 fouls/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Atlanta United FC	Philadelphia Union	Baseline
Fouls	16 fouls/match	15 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Atlanta United FC show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Atlanta United FC's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.8 shots/match▲ShotsAtlanta United FC · Philadelphia Union13.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Atlanta United FC	Philadelphia Union	Baseline
Shots	10.8 shots/match	13.8 shots/match	11.8 shots/match
Shots against	11.5 shots/match	9.5 shots/match	11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Atlanta United FC favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Philadelphia Union in 0 · 14 too close

1.25 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 4/40.5 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 4/41.75 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 1/1—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 1/1—

10.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 4/413.8 shots/match

11.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 4/49.5 shots/match

3.25 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 4/43.5 shots/match

3.75 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 4/44.25 shots/match

51%Possessionseason · 4/451.5%

3.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 4/46.75 corners/match

5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 4/42.5 corners/match

2.33 cards/matchCardsseason · 3/34 cards/match

16 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 4/415 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 4/40%

50%Scoring frequencyseason · 4/450%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atlanta United FC55.4

Philadelphia Union58.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atlanta United FC28

Philadelphia Union38.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atlanta United FC47

Philadelphia Union48.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atlanta United FC30.4

Philadelphia Union83.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atlanta United FC83.8

Philadelphia Union92.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 88%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atlanta United FC17.9

Philadelphia Union83.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atlanta United FC38.9

Philadelphia Union70.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

4 / 4 matches

1.25 goals/match▲Goals scored4/40.5 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲1.75 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

10.8 shots/matchShots4/4▲13.8 shots/match

3.25 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲3.5 shots/match

51%Possession4/451.5%

3.5 corners/matchCorners4/46.75 corners/match

2.33 cards/matchCards3/34 cards/match

16 fouls/matchFouls4/415 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

4 / 4 matches

1.25 goals/match▲Goals scored4/40.5 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲1.75 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

10.8 shots/matchShots4/4▲13.8 shots/match

3.25 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲3.5 shots/match

51%Possession4/451.5%

3.5 corners/matchCorners4/46.75 corners/match

2.33 cards/matchCards3/34 cards/match

16 fouls/matchFouls4/415 fouls/match

Window

Season

4 / 4 matches

1.25 goals/match▲Goals scored4/40.5 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲1.75 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

10.8 shots/matchShots4/4▲13.8 shots/match

3.25 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲3.5 shots/match

51%Possession4/451.5%

3.5 corners/matchCorners4/46.75 corners/match

2.33 cards/matchCards3/34 cards/match

16 fouls/matchFouls4/415 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

2 / 2 matches

—Goals scored2/2—

—Goals allowed2/2—

—Expected goals1/1—

—Shots2/2—

—Shots on target2/2—

—Possession2/2—

—Corners2/2—

—Cards1/1—

—Fouls2/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.78 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.78 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited

Season samples4 / 4home / away teams

Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Mar 2026, 23:15 UTC · analysis-v4