Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 10 May 2026, 17:30 UTCFull timeMewa ArenaFull-time recap

FSV Mainz 05

WLDLW

1–3Full-time recap

Union Berlin

DLLLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	FSV Mainz 05	Union Berlin
Shots	14 shots/match	16 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match	9 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.5 xG/match	2.77 xG/match▲
Possession	53%	47%
Corners	7 corners/match	8 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	10 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match	1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Union Berlin's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Union Berlin's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Union Berlin's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.21 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	1.21 goals/match	1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0FSV Mainz 05

1Draws

0Union Berlin

10 Jan 2026Union Berlin — FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga2–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FSV Mainz 05 favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Union Berlin in 5 · 5 too close

1.27 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 33/331.21 goals/match

1.61 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 33/331.76 goals/match

1.61 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 8/81.21 xG/match

1.27 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 8/82.05 xG/match

11.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 33/3312.2 shots/match

14.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 33/33▲13 shots/match

3.97 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 33/333.7 shots/match

5.06 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 33/33▲4.52 shots/match

43.9%Possessionseason · 33/3339.8%

5.06 corners/matchCornersseason · 33/334.97 corners/match

4.55 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 33/334.7 corners/match

2.52 cards/matchCardsseason · 25/25▲2.36 cards/match

10.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 33/3312.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

9%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 33/33▲18%

70%Scoring frequencyseason · 33/33▲76%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FSV Mainz 0519.4

Union Berlin2.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FSV Mainz 0529.6

Union Berlin26.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FSV Mainz 0536.1

Union Berlin50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FSV Mainz 0563.9

Union Berlin97.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FSV Mainz 0572.2

Union Berlin83.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 88%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FSV Mainz 0563.9

Union Berlin58.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FSV Mainz 0544.5

Union Berlin51.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match

2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match

1.62 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.39 xG/match

14.6 shots/match▲Shots5/512.6 shots/match

5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.2 shots/match

48.8%Possession5/549%

5.6 corners/matchCorners5/55.6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/510.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.1 goals/match

1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.1 goals/match

1.61 xG/match▲Expected goals8/81.21 xG/match

12.6 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.9 shots/match

4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.8 shots/match

42%Possession10/1041.8%

4.7 corners/matchCorners10/104.1 corners/match

—Cards2/2—

9.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1011 fouls/match

Window

Season

33 / 33 matches

1.27 goals/matchGoals scored33/331.21 goals/match

1.61 goals/match▲Goals allowed33/331.76 goals/match

1.61 xG/match▲Expected goals8/81.21 xG/match

11.8 shots/matchShots33/3312.2 shots/match

3.97 shots/match▲Shots on target33/333.7 shots/match

43.9%Possession33/3339.8%

5.06 corners/matchCorners33/334.97 corners/match

2.52 cards/matchCards25/252.36 cards/match

10.9 fouls/matchFouls33/3312.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

17 / 17 matches

1.24 goals/match▲Goals scored17/171.06 goals/match

1.47 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/171.88 goals/match

1.49 xG/match▲Expected goals4/50.93 xG/match

13.4 shots/match▲Shots17/1711.6 shots/match

4.12 shots/match▲Shots on target17/173.47 shots/match

46.2%Possession17/1739.4%

6.06 corners/matchCorners17/174.82 corners/match

2.08 cards/matchCards13/121.75 cards/match

11.8 fouls/matchFouls17/1712.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.17 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.17 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples33 / 33home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 10 May 2026, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

Union Berlin's recent record differs from the season

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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