PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025RheinEnergieStadion

1. FC Köln 1–3 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga

1–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FC Heidenheim won 1–3.

Shots
1811
Shots on target
75
Expected goals
1.171.36
Possession
66%34%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FC Heidenheim beat 1. FC Köln 3–1. Recorded in this match (1. FC Köln – 1. FC Heidenheim): shots 18–11, shots on target 7–5, expected goals 1.17–1.36, possession 66%–34%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FC Heidenheim's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Heidenheim's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.24 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.24 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots11 shots1. FC Köln 18 shots, 1. FC Heidenheim 11 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots5 shots1. FC Köln 7 shots, 1. FC Heidenheim 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.17 xG1.36 xG1. FC Köln 1.17 xG, 1. FC Heidenheim 1.36 xG
  • Possession66%34%1. FC Köln 66%, 1. FC Heidenheim 34%
  • Corners6 corners4 corners1. FC Köln 6 corners, 1. FC Heidenheim 4 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls8 fouls1. FC Köln 9 fouls, 1. FC Heidenheim 8 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards2 cards1. FC Köln 2 cards, 1. FC Heidenheim 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Joel Schmied · 1. FC Köln · 25′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKristoffer Lund · 1. FC Köln · 26′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSebastian Sebulonsen · 1. FC Köln · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Pieringer · 1. FC Heidenheim · 41′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLuca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln · 68′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLinton Maina · 1. FC Köln · 10′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMarius Bülter · 1. FC Köln · 12′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSaid El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 64′ · 0.03 xG · on targetArijon Ibrahimović · 1. FC Heidenheim · 64′ · 0.03 xG · on targetLuca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHennes Behrens · 1. FC Heidenheim · 33′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Kainz · 1. FC Köln · 83′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLuca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln · 74′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMarius Bülter · 1. FC Köln · 77′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMarius Bülter · 1. FC Köln · 10′ · 0.06 xG · goalBudu Zivzivadze · 1. FC Heidenheim · 15′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMarius Bülter · 1. FC Köln · 25′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedArijon Ibrahimović · 1. FC Heidenheim · 28′ · 0.06 xG · goalEren Dinkçi · 1. FC Heidenheim · 22′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMarius Bülter · 1. FC Köln · 52′ · 0.07 xG · on targetMarvin Pieringer · 1. FC Heidenheim · 86′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSebastian Sebulonsen · 1. FC Köln · 10′ · 0.11 xG · on targetAlessio Castro-Montes · 1. FC Köln · 80′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Pieringer · 1. FC Heidenheim · 45′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedSaid El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 38′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedLuca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln · 68′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedJan Schöppner · 1. FC Heidenheim · 62′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedJan Schöppner · 1. FC Heidenheim · 72′ · 0.27 xG · goalJan Schöppner · 1. FC Heidenheim · 8′ · 0.29 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FC Köln: 18 shots, 7 on target, 1.15 xG. 1. FC Heidenheim: 11 shots, 5 on target, 1.35 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Marius Bülter · 1. FC Köln · 10′Jan Schöppner · 1. FC Heidenheim · 8′Arijon Ibrahimović · 1. FC Heidenheim · 28′Jan Schöppner · 1. FC Heidenheim · 72′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FC Köln 1.15 xG · 1. FC Heidenheim 1.35 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

01. FC Köln
2Draws
11. FC Heidenheim
1. FC Heidenheim — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga2–2
1. FC Heidenheim — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga4–1
1. FC Köln — 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Köln favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FC Heidenheim in 1

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Köln33 matches1. FC Heidenheim33 matches
1.45 goals/match ▲Goals scored33/331.24 goals/match
1.76 goals/match ▲Goals allowed33/332.12 goals/match
1.53 xG/match ▲Expected goals33/331.36 xG/match
13.5 shots/match ▲Shots33/3311.3 shots/match
4.67 shots/match ▲Shots on target33/333.58 shots/match
47.5% ●Possession33/3341.9%
4.61 corners/match ●Corners33/334.48 corners/match
1.96 cards/matchCards27/261.54 cards/match
8.45 fouls/matchFouls33/339.88 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples33 / 33home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 10 May 2026, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC Köln1. FC Heidenheim
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-head1. FC Köln — 1. FC Heidenheim
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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