PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 16 May 2026, 13:30 UTCFull time

1. FC Heidenheim

0–2Full-time recap

FSV Mainz 05

This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: 1. FC Heidenheim's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples34 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

1. FC Heidenheim's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Heidenheim's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.21 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

1. FC Heidenheim8.3
FSV Mainz 0513.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

1. FC Heidenheim12.9
FSV Mainz 0530.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

1. FC Heidenheim2.8
FSV Mainz 0538.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

1. FC Heidenheim63.9
FSV Mainz 0569.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

1. FC Heidenheim25
FSV Mainz 0572.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 87%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

1. FC Heidenheim30.6
FSV Mainz 0563.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

1. FC Heidenheim22.9
FSV Mainz 0546.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
Metric1. FC HeidenheimFSV Mainz 05
Goals scored1.8 goals/match5 obs.1.8 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed1.6 goals/match5 obs.1.8 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals1.83 xG/match5 obs.2.19 xG/match5 obs.
Shots12.6 shots/match5 obs.15.6 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target4.4 shots/match5 obs.6.4 shots/match5 obs.
Possession42.4%5 obs.47.8%5 obs.
Corners5 corners/match5 obs.5 corners/match5 obs.
Cards—0 obs.—0 obs.
Fouls7.8 fouls/match5 obs.10.6 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
Metric1. FC HeidenheimFSV Mainz 05
Goals scored1.9 goals/match10 obs.1.7 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed1.9 goals/match10 obs.1.4 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals1.52 xG/match9 obs.1.82 xG/match9 obs.
Shots10.5 shots/match10 obs.13.3 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target4 shots/match10 obs.5.3 shots/match10 obs.
Possession42.4%10 obs.43.2%10 obs.
Corners4.1 corners/match10 obs.4.8 corners/match10 obs.
Cards—2 obs.—1 obs.
Fouls8.4 fouls/match10 obs.9.4 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

34 / 34 matches
Metric1. FC HeidenheimFSV Mainz 05
Goals scored1.21 goals/match34 obs.1.29 goals/match34 obs.
Goals allowed2.12 goals/match34 obs.1.56 goals/match34 obs.
Expected goals1.52 xG/match9 obs.1.82 xG/match9 obs.
Shots11.4 shots/match34 obs.11.9 shots/match34 obs.
Shots on target3.62 shots/match34 obs.4.12 shots/match34 obs.
Possession42.4%34 obs.43.9%34 obs.
Corners4.53 corners/match34 obs.5 corners/match34 obs.
Cards1.54 cards/match26 obs.2.52 cards/match25 obs.
Fouls9.82 fouls/match34 obs.11 fouls/match34 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

17 / 17 matches
Metric1. FC HeidenheimFSV Mainz 05
Goals scored1.35 goals/match17 obs.1.35 goals/match17 obs.
Goals allowed2.18 goals/match17 obs.1.65 goals/match17 obs.
Expected goals1.87 xG/match4 obs.2.08 xG/match5 obs.
Shots11.5 shots/match17 obs.10.4 shots/match17 obs.
Shots on target4 shots/match17 obs.4.12 shots/match17 obs.
Possession41.8%17 obs.41.7%17 obs.
Corners4.65 corners/match17 obs.3.94 corners/match17 obs.
Cards1.15 cards/match13 obs.3 cards/match12 obs.
Fouls9.35 fouls/match17 obs.10.1 fouls/match17 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Goals scoredseason1.21 goals/match19th1.29 goals/match33th1.38 goals/match34 / 34
Goals allowedseason2.12 goals/match97th1.56 goals/match39th1.63 goals/match34 / 34
Expected goalsseason1.52 xG/match53th1.82 xG/match64th1.51 xG/match9 / 9
Expected goals allowedseason1.52 xG/match47th1.42 xG/match25th1.52 xG/match9 / 9
Shotsseason11.4 shots/match11th11.9 shots/match25th12.6 shots/match34 / 34
Shots allowedseason15.3 shots/match97th14.1 shots/match75th13.3 shots/match34 / 34
Shots on targetseason3.62 shots/match8th4.12 shots/match33th4.54 shots/match34 / 34
Shots on target allowedseason5.65 shots/match97th5.06 shots/match69th4.84 shots/match34 / 34
Possessionseason42.4%8th43.9%14th47.6%34 / 34
Cornersseason4.53 corners/match31th5 corners/match64th4.71 corners/match34 / 34
Corners allowedseason5.06 corners/match69th4.59 corners/match42th4.79 corners/match34 / 34
Cardsseason1.54 cards/match8th2.52 cards/match81th2.06 cards/match26 / 25
Foulsseason9.82 fouls/match42th11 fouls/match64th10.1 fouls/match34 / 34
Clean-sheet frequencyseason3%3th12%19th19%34 / 34
Scoring frequencyseason65%17th71%28th76%34 / 34

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures5.92 days—5.83 days——1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures2 matches—2 matches——1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Teams1. FC HeidenheimFSV Mainz 05
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 16 May 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v3