PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 16 May 2026, 13:30 UTCFull time

Bayern München

5–1Full-time recap

1. FC Köln

This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples34 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots19.1 shots/match13.3 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against10.4 shots/match13.6 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 20.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Possession67.4%47.1%47.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

1. FC Köln's recent record differs from the season

weak

1. FC Köln's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.44 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bayern München97.2
1. FC Köln47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bayern München97.2
1. FC Köln59.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bayern München95.4
1. FC Köln43.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bayern München80.6
1. FC Köln75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bayern München22.2
1. FC Köln22.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 88%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bayern München97.2
1. FC Köln38.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bayern München76.4
1. FC Köln41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
MetricBayern München1. FC Köln
Goals scored3.4 goals/match5 obs.1.2 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed1.8 goals/match5 obs.2.6 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals2.58 xG/match5 obs.1.49 xG/match5 obs.
Shots19.4 shots/match5 obs.13.4 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target7.6 shots/match5 obs.4.4 shots/match5 obs.
Possession70%5 obs.47%5 obs.
Corners7.2 corners/match5 obs.4.2 corners/match5 obs.
Cards—0 obs.—0 obs.
Fouls6.6 fouls/match5 obs.6.8 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
MetricBayern München1. FC Köln
Goals scored3.4 goals/match10 obs.1.6 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed1.3 goals/match10 obs.2.2 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals2.76 xG/match9 obs.1.85 xG/match9 obs.
Shots19.5 shots/match10 obs.14.3 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target7.6 shots/match10 obs.5 shots/match10 obs.
Possession69.5%10 obs.47.1%10 obs.
Corners6.7 corners/match10 obs.5.1 corners/match10 obs.
Cards—2 obs.4.67 cards/match3 obs.
Fouls7.7 fouls/match10 obs.8.5 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

34 / 34 matches
MetricBayern München1. FC Köln
Goals scored3.59 goals/match34 obs.1.44 goals/match34 obs.
Goals allowed1.06 goals/match34 obs.1.85 goals/match34 obs.
Expected goals2.76 xG/match9 obs.1.85 xG/match9 obs.
Shots19.1 shots/match34 obs.13.3 shots/match34 obs.
Shots on target8.44 shots/match34 obs.4.56 shots/match34 obs.
Possession67.4%34 obs.47.1%34 obs.
Corners6.32 corners/match34 obs.4.56 corners/match34 obs.
Cards1.85 cards/match26 obs.1.96 cards/match27 obs.
Fouls8.76 fouls/match34 obs.8.24 fouls/match34 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

17 / 17 matches
MetricBayern München1. FC Köln
Goals scored4 goals/match17 obs.1.12 goals/match17 obs.
Goals allowed1.12 goals/match17 obs.1.94 goals/match17 obs.
Expected goals3.65 xG/match4 obs.1.62 xG/match5 obs.
Shots21.5 shots/match17 obs.11.8 shots/match17 obs.
Shots on target8.88 shots/match17 obs.3.76 shots/match17 obs.
Possession67.6%17 obs.45.6%17 obs.
Corners7.65 corners/match17 obs.4.41 corners/match17 obs.
Cards1.38 cards/match13 obs.1.83 cards/match12 obs.
Fouls8.47 fouls/match17 obs.8.06 fouls/match17 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Goals scoredseason3.59 goals/match97th1.44 goals/match53th1.38 goals/match34 / 34
Goals allowedseason1.06 goals/match8th1.85 goals/match81th1.63 goals/match34 / 34
Expected goalsseason2.76 xG/match97th1.85 xG/match69th1.51 xG/match9 / 9
Expected goals allowedseason1.61 xG/match69th1.47 xG/match36th1.52 xG/match9 / 9
Shotsseason19.1 shots/match97th13.3 shots/match69th12.6 shots/match34 / 34
Shots allowedseason10.4 shots/match3th13.6 shots/match53th13.3 shots/match34 / 34
Shots on targetseason8.44 shots/match97th4.56 shots/match56th4.54 shots/match34 / 34
Shots on target allowedseason3.03 shots/match3th4.68 shots/match36th4.84 shots/match34 / 34
Possessionseason67.4%97th47.1%47th47.6%34 / 34
Cornersseason6.32 corners/match97th4.56 corners/match39th4.71 corners/match34 / 34
Corners allowedseason3.47 corners/match3th5.53 corners/match86th4.79 corners/match34 / 34
Cardsseason1.85 cards/match31th1.96 cards/match42th2.06 cards/match26 / 27
Foulsseason8.76 fouls/match14th8.24 fouls/match3th10.1 fouls/match34 / 34
Clean-sheet frequencyseason35%86th9%14th19%34 / 34
Scoring frequencyseason100%97th88%67th76%34 / 34

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures6.88 days—5.92 days——1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures2 matches—2 matches——1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
TeamsBayern München1. FC Köln
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 16 May 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v3