PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 16 May 2026, 13:30 UTCFull time

Borussia Mönchengladbach

4–0Full-time recap

1899 Hoffenheim

This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: 1899 Hoffenheim's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: 1899 Hoffenheim have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples34 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

1899 Hoffenheim's recent record differs from the season

weak

1899 Hoffenheim's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.91 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

1899 Hoffenheim have recorded the higher season possession share.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Possession46.6%55.2%47.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Borussia Mönchengladbach41.7
1899 Hoffenheim80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Borussia Mönchengladbach20.4
1899 Hoffenheim75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Borussia Mönchengladbach35.2
1899 Hoffenheim76.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Borussia Mönchengladbach19.4
1899 Hoffenheim36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Borussia Mönchengladbach38.8
1899 Hoffenheim80.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 90%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Borussia Mönchengladbach8.3
1899 Hoffenheim91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Borussia Mönchengladbach25.7
1899 Hoffenheim86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
MetricBorussia Mönchengladbach1899 Hoffenheim
Goals scored1.4 goals/match5 obs.1.6 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed0.8 goals/match5 obs.1.8 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals1.04 xG/match5 obs.1.58 xG/match5 obs.
Shots10.6 shots/match5 obs.14.6 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target3.6 shots/match5 obs.4.8 shots/match5 obs.
Possession50.2%5 obs.55.8%5 obs.
Corners1.8 corners/match5 obs.6.8 corners/match5 obs.
Cards—1 obs.3.67 cards/match3 obs.
Fouls9.6 fouls/match5 obs.13.6 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
MetricBorussia Mönchengladbach1899 Hoffenheim
Goals scored1.5 goals/match10 obs.1.6 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed1.4 goals/match10 obs.2.1 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals1.04 xG/match9 obs.1.42 xG/match9 obs.
Shots10.8 shots/match10 obs.14.6 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target4 shots/match10 obs.4.9 shots/match10 obs.
Possession46.9%10 obs.57.7%10 obs.
Corners1.9 corners/match10 obs.6.7 corners/match10 obs.
Cards2.33 cards/match3 obs.2.75 cards/match4 obs.
Fouls10 fouls/match10 obs.13.7 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

34 / 34 matches
MetricBorussia Mönchengladbach1899 Hoffenheim
Goals scored1.24 goals/match34 obs.1.91 goals/match34 obs.
Goals allowed1.56 goals/match34 obs.1.53 goals/match34 obs.
Expected goals1.04 xG/match9 obs.1.42 xG/match9 obs.
Shots11.4 shots/match34 obs.14 shots/match34 obs.
Shots on target4.09 shots/match34 obs.5.15 shots/match34 obs.
Possession46.6%34 obs.55.2%34 obs.
Corners3.68 corners/match34 obs.5.79 corners/match34 obs.
Cards1.59 cards/match27 obs.2.21 cards/match28 obs.
Fouls10.7 fouls/match34 obs.13.9 fouls/match34 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

17 / 17 matches
MetricBorussia Mönchengladbach1899 Hoffenheim
Goals scored1.41 goals/match17 obs.1.76 goals/match17 obs.
Goals allowed1.41 goals/match17 obs.1.82 goals/match17 obs.
Expected goals1.08 xG/match5 obs.1.23 xG/match4 obs.
Shots11.5 shots/match17 obs.11.9 shots/match17 obs.
Shots on target4.41 shots/match17 obs.4.35 shots/match17 obs.
Possession45.9%17 obs.53.5%17 obs.
Corners3.29 corners/match17 obs.5.18 corners/match17 obs.
Cards1.62 cards/match13 obs.2.64 cards/match14 obs.
Fouls10.5 fouls/match17 obs.14.5 fouls/match17 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Goals scoredseason1.24 goals/match25th1.91 goals/match69th1.38 goals/match34 / 34
Goals allowedseason1.56 goals/match39th1.53 goals/match31th1.63 goals/match34 / 34
Expected goalsseason1.04 xG/match14th1.42 xG/match36th1.51 xG/match9 / 9
Expected goals allowedseason1.38 xG/match14th1.4 xG/match19th1.52 xG/match9 / 9
Shotsseason11.4 shots/match11th14 shots/match75th12.6 shots/match34 / 34
Shots allowedseason14.1 shots/match69th12.1 shots/match19th13.3 shots/match34 / 34
Shots on targetseason4.09 shots/match25th5.15 shots/match81th4.54 shots/match34 / 34
Shots on target allowedseason5.5 shots/match86th4.38 shots/match19th4.84 shots/match34 / 34
Possessionseason46.6%42th55.2%81th47.6%34 / 34
Cornersseason3.68 corners/match8th5.79 corners/match92th4.71 corners/match34 / 34
Corners allowedseason4.88 corners/match58th4.76 corners/match47th4.79 corners/match34 / 34
Cardsseason1.59 cards/match19th2.21 cards/match64th2.06 cards/match27 / 28
Foulsseason10.7 fouls/match58th13.9 fouls/match97th10.1 fouls/match34 / 34
Clean-sheet frequencyseason38%92th21%58th19%34 / 34
Scoring frequencyseason65%17th82%58th76%34 / 34

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures7 days—7 days——1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures2 matches—2 matches——1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
TeamsBorussia Mönchengladbach1899 Hoffenheim
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 16 May 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v3