Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 10 May 2026, 13:30 UTCFull timeVolksparkstadionFull-time recap

Hamburger SV

DLLLW

3–2Full-time recap

SC Freiburg

LWWLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Hamburger SV	SC Freiburg
Shots	14 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	2.02 xG/match▲	0.51 xG/match
Possession	47%	53%
Corners	2 corners/match	4 corners/match
Fouls	14 fouls/match	8 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match	2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: SC Freiburg's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: SC Freiburg's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

SC Freiburg's recent record differs from the season

weak

SC Freiburg's last-five shots average is below their season average.

9.6 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.2 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	9.6 shots/match	12.2 shots/match	12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

SC Freiburg have a visible away split

moderate

SC Freiburg's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.2 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.2 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	10.2 shots/match	12.2 shots/match	12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Hamburger SV

0Draws

1SC Freiburg

10 Jan 2026SC Freiburg — Hamburger SV · Bundesliga2–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Hamburger SV favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · SC Freiburg in 6 · 6 too close

1.18 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 33/33▲1.42 goals/match

1.61 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 33/331.7 goals/match

1.04 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 8/8▲1.12 xG/match

2.15 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 8/8▲1.48 xG/match

12 shots/matchShotsseason · 33/3312.2 shots/match

14 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 33/3313.7 shots/match

4.52 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 33/334.18 shots/match

4.85 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 33/33▲4.52 shots/match

45.5%Possessionseason · 33/3348.2%

3.67 corners/matchCornersseason · 33/334.21 corners/match

5.64 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 33/33▲4.21 corners/match

2.61 cards/matchCardsseason · 28/25▲1.72 cards/match

11.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 33/339.24 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

18%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 33/3318%

70%Scoring frequencyseason · 33/3373%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Hamburger SV36.1

SC Freiburg52.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Hamburger SV36.1

SC Freiburg47.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Hamburger SV41.7

SC Freiburg52.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Hamburger SV58.3

SC Freiburg36.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Hamburger SV83.3

SC Freiburg22.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 88%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Hamburger SV2.8

SC Freiburg13.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Hamburger SV41.7

SC Freiburg30.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match

2.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.8 goals/match

1 xG/match▲Expected goals5/50.84 xG/match

10.4 shots/match▲Shots5/59.6 shots/match

4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match

40.2%Possession5/550%

3 corners/matchCorners5/52.8 corners/match

—Cards2/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/59.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/101.3 goals/match

1.9 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.9 goals/match

1.04 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲1.12 xG/match

9.8 shots/matchShots10/10▲11.9 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.4 shots/match

41.6%Possession10/1048.9%

3.2 corners/matchCorners10/103.8 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards5/2—

10.3 fouls/matchFouls10/108.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

33 / 33 matches

1.18 goals/matchGoals scored33/33▲1.42 goals/match

1.61 goals/match▲Goals allowed33/331.7 goals/match

1.04 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲1.12 xG/match

12 shots/matchShots33/3312.2 shots/match

4.52 shots/match▲Shots on target33/334.18 shots/match

45.5%Possession33/3348.2%

3.67 corners/matchCorners33/334.21 corners/match

2.61 cards/matchCards28/251.72 cards/match

11.7 fouls/matchFouls33/339.24 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

17 / 17 matches

1.47 goals/match▲Goals scored17/171.06 goals/match

1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/172.06 goals/match

1.28 xG/match▲Expected goals4/40.97 xG/match

13.1 shots/match▲Shots17/1710.2 shots/match

4.71 shots/match▲Shots on target17/173.29 shots/match

45.4%Possession17/1744.9%

3.71 corners/matchCorners17/173.71 corners/match

2.43 cards/matchCards14/131.54 cards/match

11.9 fouls/matchFouls17/179.82 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.83 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples33 / 33home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 10 May 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

SC Freiburg's recent record differs from the season

SC Freiburg have a visible away split

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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