PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 16 May 2026, 13:30 UTCFull time

Union Berlin

4–0Full-time recap

FC Augsburg

This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Union Berlin's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples34 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

Union Berlin's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Union Berlin's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.29 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Union Berlin2.8
FC Augsburg19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Union Berlin31.5
FC Augsburg51.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Union Berlin56.5
FC Augsburg26.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Union Berlin97.2
FC Augsburg91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Union Berlin83.3
FC Augsburg83.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 87%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Union Berlin58.3
FC Augsburg38.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Union Berlin52.8
FC Augsburg54.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
MetricUnion BerlinFC Augsburg
Goals scored2.2 goals/match5 obs.1.8 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed1.6 goals/match5 obs.1.6 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals1.84 xG/match5 obs.1.53 xG/match5 obs.
Shots14 shots/match5 obs.13.2 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target5.4 shots/match5 obs.4.8 shots/match5 obs.
Possession47.8%5 obs.38.2%5 obs.
Corners5.4 corners/match5 obs.5.2 corners/match5 obs.
Cards—0 obs.—0 obs.
Fouls9 fouls/match5 obs.8 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
MetricUnion BerlinFC Augsburg
Goals scored1.5 goals/match10 obs.1.5 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed2 goals/match10 obs.2 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals1.43 xG/match9 obs.1.53 xG/match9 obs.
Shots12 shots/match10 obs.13.6 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target4.5 shots/match10 obs.4.9 shots/match10 obs.
Possession42.7%10 obs.38.9%10 obs.
Corners4.3 corners/match10 obs.4.3 corners/match10 obs.
Cards—1 obs.—2 obs.
Fouls9.8 fouls/match10 obs.8.5 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

34 / 34 matches
MetricUnion BerlinFC Augsburg
Goals scored1.29 goals/match34 obs.1.32 goals/match34 obs.
Goals allowed1.71 goals/match34 obs.1.79 goals/match34 obs.
Expected goals1.43 xG/match9 obs.1.53 xG/match9 obs.
Shots12.3 shots/match34 obs.13.1 shots/match34 obs.
Shots on target3.85 shots/match34 obs.4.53 shots/match34 obs.
Possession40.1%34 obs.44%34 obs.
Corners4.94 corners/match34 obs.4.56 corners/match34 obs.
Cards2.36 cards/match25 obs.2.73 cards/match26 obs.
Fouls12.2 fouls/match34 obs.11 fouls/match34 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

17 / 17 matches
MetricUnion BerlinFC Augsburg
Goals scored1.53 goals/match17 obs.1.18 goals/match17 obs.
Goals allowed1.53 goals/match17 obs.1.94 goals/match17 obs.
Expected goals2.05 xG/match4 obs.1.23 xG/match5 obs.
Shots13 shots/match17 obs.13 shots/match17 obs.
Shots on target4.24 shots/match17 obs.4.06 shots/match17 obs.
Possession40.9%17 obs.43%17 obs.
Corners5.06 corners/match17 obs.3.88 corners/match17 obs.
Cards2.92 cards/match13 obs.2.77 cards/match13 obs.
Fouls11.9 fouls/match17 obs.10.8 fouls/match17 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Goals scoredseason1.29 goals/match33th1.32 goals/match44th1.38 goals/match34 / 34
Goals allowedseason1.71 goals/match58th1.79 goals/match75th1.63 goals/match34 / 34
Expected goalsseason1.43 xG/match42th1.53 xG/match58th1.51 xG/match9 / 9
Expected goals allowedseason1.88 xG/match81th1.97 xG/match86th1.52 xG/match9 / 9
Shotsseason12.3 shots/match47th13.1 shots/match64th12.6 shots/match34 / 34
Shots allowedseason12.9 shots/match47th14.5 shots/match86th13.3 shots/match34 / 34
Shots on targetseason3.85 shots/match14th4.53 shots/match47th4.54 shots/match34 / 34
Shots on target allowedseason4.41 shots/match25th4.91 shots/match58th4.84 shots/match34 / 34
Possessionseason40.1%3th44%19th47.6%34 / 34
Cornersseason4.94 corners/match58th4.56 corners/match39th4.71 corners/match34 / 34
Corners allowedseason4.82 corners/match53th5.47 corners/match81th4.79 corners/match34 / 34
Cardsseason2.36 cards/match75th2.73 cards/match97th2.06 cards/match25 / 26
Foulsseason12.2 fouls/match92th11 fouls/match69th10.1 fouls/match34 / 34
Clean-sheet frequencyseason21%58th15%28th19%34 / 34
Scoring frequencyseason76%50th74%39th76%34 / 34

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures5.83 days—7 days——1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures2 matches—2 matches——1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
TeamsUnion BerlinFC Augsburg
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 16 May 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v3