PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 25 Apr 2026, 16:30 UTCFull timeVolksparkstadionFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricHamburger SV1899 Hoffenheim
Shots10 shots/match14 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Expected goals1.25 xG/match1.39 xG/match▲
Possession41%59%
Corners4 corners/match9 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match18 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: 1899 Hoffenheim's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

1899 Hoffenheim's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1899 Hoffenheim's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.97 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.97 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

moderate

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

11.8 fouls/match▲FoulsHamburger SV · 1899 Hoffenheim14 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricHamburger SV1899 HoffenheimBaseline
Fouls11.8 fouls/match14 fouls/match10.2 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

1899 Hoffenheim have recorded the higher season possession share.

45.7%▲PossessionHamburger SV · 1899 Hoffenheim54.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricHamburger SV1899 HoffenheimBaseline
Possession45.7%54.9%47.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Hamburger SV
0Draws
11899 Hoffenheim
1899 Hoffenheim — Hamburger SV · Bundesliga4–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Hamburger SV favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · 1899 Hoffenheim in 11 · 3 too close

1.1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 31/31▲1.97 goals/match
1.61 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 31/31▲1.45 goals/match
0.95 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 6/6▲1.27 xG/match
2.66 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 6/6▲1.41 xG/match
12 shots/matchShotsseason · 31/31▲13.8 shots/match
14.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 31/31▲12.2 shots/match
4.52 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 31/31▲5.13 shots/match
4.9 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 31/31▲4.39 shots/match
45.7%Possessionseason · 31/3154.9%
3.71 corners/matchCornersseason · 31/315.68 corners/match
5.58 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 31/31▲4.9 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCardsseason · 27/25▲2.04 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 31/3114 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
19%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 31/3119%
68%Scoring frequencyseason · 31/31▲84%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Hamburger SV36.1
1899 Hoffenheim75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Hamburger SV30.6
1899 Hoffenheim75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Hamburger SV35.2
1899 Hoffenheim73.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Hamburger SV52.8
1899 Hoffenheim41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Hamburger SV88.9
1899 Hoffenheim77.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 90%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Hamburger SV2.8
1899 Hoffenheim91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Hamburger SV43.1
1899 Hoffenheim86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match
2.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲2.2 goals/match
1.07 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.15 xG/match
10 shots/matchShots5/5▲12.4 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.8 shots/match
40.6%Possession5/556%
4 corners/matchCorners5/55.4 corners/match
—Cards2/0—
11 fouls/matchFouls5/515 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.7 goals/match
1.9 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.7 goals/match
0.95 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲1.27 xG/match
9.6 shots/matchShots10/10▲16.1 shots/match
3.9 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.7 shots/match
43%Possession10/1059.3%
3.2 corners/matchCorners10/107.2 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards6/41.75 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

31 / 31 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored31/31▲1.97 goals/match
1.61 goals/matchGoals allowed31/31▲1.45 goals/match
0.95 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲1.27 xG/match
12 shots/matchShots31/31▲13.8 shots/match
4.52 shots/matchShots on target31/31▲5.13 shots/match
45.7%Possession31/3154.9%
3.71 corners/matchCorners31/315.68 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCards27/252.04 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls31/3114 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

16 / 16 matches
1.38 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲1.88 goals/match
1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.69 goals/match
1.03 xG/matchExpected goals3/31.07 xG/match
13.1 shots/match▲Shots16/1612 shots/match
4.69 shots/match▲Shots on target16/164.44 shots/match
45.3%Possession16/1653.4%
3.81 corners/matchCorners16/164.94 corners/match
2.43 cards/matchCards14/132.31 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls16/1614.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.12 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.12 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples31 / 31home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Apr 2026, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsHamburger SV1899 Hoffenheim
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match