PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 8 Mar 2026, 16:30 UTCFull timeStadion An der Alten FörstereiFull-time recap
1–4Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricUnion BerlinWerder Bremen
Shots9 shots/match15 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession25%75%
Corners1 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls5 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Union Berlin's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Werder Bremen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Union Berlin's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Union Berlin's last-five shots average is below their season average.

9.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots9.2 shots/match12.3 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Werder Bremen have a visible away split

moderate

Werder Bremen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.5 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.5 shots/match13.5 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Werder Bremen have recorded the higher season possession share.

38.5%▲PossessionUnion Berlin · Werder Bremen52%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricUnion BerlinWerder BremenBaseline
Possession38.5%52%47.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Union Berlin
0Draws
1Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen — Union Berlin · Bundesliga1–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Union Berlin favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Werder Bremen in 2 · 6 too close

1.2 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 25/251.16 goals/match
1.68 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 25/251.8 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 25/25▲13.5 shots/match
12.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 25/2513.4 shots/match
3.52 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 25/25▲4.2 shots/match
4.28 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 25/255.24 shots/match
38.5%Possessionseason · 25/2552%
5.04 corners/matchCornersseason · 25/254.44 corners/match
4.24 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 25/254.68 corners/match
2.36 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 25/252.64 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/2510.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
20%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/2520%
72%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 25/2560%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Union Berlin2.8
Werder Bremen58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Union Berlin28.7
Werder Bremen45.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Union Berlin60.2
Werder Bremen29.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Union Berlin97.2
Werder Bremen47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Union Berlin83.3
Werder Bremen69.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Union Berlin58.3
Werder Bremen25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Union Berlin50
Werder Bremen45.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.2 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.6 shots/match
34.2%Possession5/556.8%
3 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match
3.2 cards/matchCards5/52.8 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/511.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.1 goals/match
1.9 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.5 shots/matchShots10/10▲15.6 shots/match
3.3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.2 shots/match
42%Possession10/1057.5%
4.5 corners/matchCorners10/104.6 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

25 / 25 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored25/251.16 goals/match
1.68 goals/match▲Goals allowed25/251.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.3 shots/matchShots25/25▲13.5 shots/match
3.52 shots/matchShots on target25/25▲4.2 shots/match
38.5%Possession25/2552%
5.04 corners/matchCorners25/254.44 corners/match
2.36 cards/matchCards25/252.64 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls25/2510.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches
1.38 goals/match▲Goals scored13/131.15 goals/match
1.62 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.85 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.8 shots/matchShots13/1311.5 shots/match
3.62 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲3.92 shots/match
37%Possession13/1352%
4.92 corners/matchCorners13/134.46 corners/match
2.92 cards/matchCards13/132.62 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls13/1310.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.08 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.08 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Mar 2026, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsUnion BerlinWerder Bremen
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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