PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025RheinEnergieStadion

1. FC Köln 1–2 Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Borussia Dortmund won 1–2.

Shots
1413
Shots on target
45
Expected goals
1.141.95
Possession
39%61%

Full time

What the match recorded

Borussia Dortmund beat 1. FC Köln 2–1. Recorded in this match (1. FC Köln – Borussia Dortmund): shots 14–13, shots on target 4–5, expected goals 1.14–1.95, possession 39%–61%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FC Köln's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Köln's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.36 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.36 goals/match1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots13 shots1. FC Köln 14 shots, Borussia Dortmund 13 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots5 shots1. FC Köln 4 shots, Borussia Dortmund 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.14 xG1.95 xG1. FC Köln 1.14 xG, Borussia Dortmund 1.95 xG
  • Possession39%61%1. FC Köln 39%, Borussia Dortmund 61%
  • Corners9 corners4 corners1. FC Köln 9 corners, Borussia Dortmund 4 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls13 fouls1. FC Köln 9 fouls, Borussia Dortmund 13 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card1 card1. FC Köln 1 card, Borussia Dortmund 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Kristoffer Lund · 1. FC Köln · 15′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedYoussoupha Niang · 1. FC Köln · 19′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRagnar Ache · 1. FC Köln · 38′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKristoffer Lund · 1. FC Köln · 54′ · 0.02 xG · on targetFelix Nmecha · Borussia Dortmund · 75′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKarim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund · 89′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarcel Sabitzer · Borussia Dortmund · 9′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRagnar Ache · 1. FC Köln · 34′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEric Martel · 1. FC Köln · 57′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Beier · Borussia Dortmund · 15′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Beier · Borussia Dortmund · 33′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedYoussoupha Niang · 1. FC Köln · 57′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFábio Silva · Borussia Dortmund · 66′ · 0.05 xG · on targetFábio Silva · Borussia Dortmund · 66′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedSaid El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 34′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln · 56′ · 0.08 xG · on targetRamy Bensebaini · Borussia Dortmund · 80′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedNico Schlotterbeck · Borussia Dortmund · 47′ · 0.09 xG · on targetYoussoupha Niang · 1. FC Köln · 39′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedYoussoupha Niang · 1. FC Köln · 5′ · 0.11 xG · on targetJakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln · 88′ · 0.11 xG · goalDaniel Svensson · Borussia Dortmund · 9′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 40′ · 0.20 xG · on targetÍsak Bergmann Jóhannesson · 1. FC Köln · 1′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedÍsak Bergmann Jóhannesson · 1. FC Köln · 1′ · 0.28 xG · off target or blockedSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 16′ · 0.46 xG · goalMaximilian Beier · Borussia Dortmund · 60′ · 0.63 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FC Köln: 14 shots, 4 on target, 1.19 xG. Borussia Dortmund: 13 shots, 5 on target, 1.91 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Jakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln · 88′Serhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 16′Maximilian Beier · Borussia Dortmund · 60′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FC Köln 1.19 xG · Borussia Dortmund 1.91 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

11. FC Köln
0Draws
4Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga1–0
1. FC Köln — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga0–4
Borussia Dortmund — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga1–0
Borussia Dortmund — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga6–1
1. FC Köln — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga3–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Köln favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Borussia Dortmund in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Köln25 matchesBorussia Dortmund25 matches
1.36 goals/matchGoals scored25/25▲ 2.12 goals/match
1.72 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲ 1.04 goals/match
1.36 xG/matchExpected goals25/25▲ 1.73 xG/match
12.9 shots/matchShots25/2513 shots/match
4.32 shots/matchShots on target25/25▲ 4.8 shots/match
46.7%Possession25/25● 53%
4.52 corners/matchCorners25/25● 5.24 corners/match
1.64 cards/matchCards25/251.92 cards/match
8.16 fouls/matchFouls25/2511.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Mar 2026, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC KölnBorussia Dortmund
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-head1. FC Köln — Borussia Dortmund
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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