Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 14 Mar 2026, 17:30 UTCFull timeVolksparkstadionFull-time recap

Hamburger SV

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1–1Full-time recap

1. FC Köln

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This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Hamburger SV	1. FC Köln
Shots	5 shots/match	11 shots/match▲
Shots on target	1 shots/match	2 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.35 xG/match	1.22 xG/match▲
Possession	45%	55%
Corners	1 corners/match	8 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	12 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match▲	4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: 1. FC Köln's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Hamburger SV. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

1. FC Köln's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Köln's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.35 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	1.35 goals/match	1.35 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Hamburger SV.

7.12 days▲Rest daysHamburger SV · 1. FC Köln7 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Hamburger SV	1. FC Köln	Baseline
Rest days	7.12 days	7 days	—
Matches last 14 days	3 matches	1 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Hamburger SV

0Draws

11. FC Köln

2 Nov 20251. FC Köln — Hamburger SV · Bundesliga4–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Hamburger SV favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · 1. FC Köln in 3 · 8 too close

1.12 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 26/26▲1.35 goals/match

1.42 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 26/261.69 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 1/1—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 1/1—

12.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 26/2612.9 shots/match

13.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 26/2614 shots/match

4.62 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 26/264.27 shots/match

4.54 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 26/264.73 shots/match

46.7%Possessionseason · 26/2647.1%

3.65 corners/matchCornersseason · 26/264.65 corners/match

5.42 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 26/265.69 corners/match

2.6 cards/matchCardsseason · 25/25▲1.64 cards/match

12 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 26/268.31 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

23%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 26/2612%

65%Scoring frequencyseason · 26/26▲85%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Hamburger SV41.7

1. FC Köln47.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Hamburger SV40.8

1. FC Köln51.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Hamburger SV52.8

1. FC Köln32.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Hamburger SV63.9

1. FC Köln75

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Hamburger SV86.1

1. FC Köln13.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Hamburger SV2.8

1. FC Köln44.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Hamburger SV49.3

1. FC Köln38.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored5/51 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

9.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲10.8 shots/match

3.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.2 shots/match

45.4%Possession5/545.4%

2.4 corners/matchCorners5/56.8 corners/match

1.75 cards/matchCards4/41.25 cards/match

10 fouls/matchFouls5/58.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.1 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.8 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

11.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.6 shots/match

4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.5 shots/match

47.7%Possession10/1045.8%

3.5 corners/matchCorners10/105.9 corners/match

2.22 cards/matchCards9/91.44 cards/match

11.4 fouls/matchFouls10/107.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

26 / 26 matches

1.12 goals/matchGoals scored26/26▲1.35 goals/match

1.42 goals/match▲Goals allowed26/261.69 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

12.4 shots/matchShots26/2612.9 shots/match

4.62 shots/match▲Shots on target26/264.27 shots/match

46.7%Possession26/2647.1%

3.65 corners/matchCorners26/264.65 corners/match

2.6 cards/matchCards25/251.64 cards/match

12 fouls/matchFouls26/268.31 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 13 matches

1.43 goals/match▲Goals scored14/131 goals/match

1.21 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/131.77 goals/match

—Expected goals1/1—

13 shots/match▲Shots14/1312.2 shots/match

4.79 shots/match▲Shots on target14/133.69 shots/match

45.1%Possession14/1347.5%

3.5 corners/matchCorners14/134.62 corners/match

2.38 cards/matchCards13/121.83 cards/match

11.9 fouls/matchFouls14/138.77 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.12 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples26 / 26home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Mar 2026, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4