Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 21 Mar 2026, 17:30 UTCFull timeSignal Iduna ParkFull-time recap

Borussia Dortmund

WDLWW

3–2Full-time recap

Hamburger SV

DLLWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Borussia Dortmund	Hamburger SV
Shots	24 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Shots on target	8 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	6.2 xG/match▲	1.47 xG/match
Possession	68%	32%
Corners	11 corners/match	3 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	8 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match▲	3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Hamburger SV's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Hamburger SV's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Hamburger SV's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Hamburger SV's last-five shots average is below their season average.

7.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	7.2 shots/match	12.1 shots/match	12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Hamburger SV show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Hamburger SV's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.5 shots/match▲ShotsBorussia Dortmund · Hamburger SV12.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Borussia Dortmund	Hamburger SV	Baseline
Shots	13.5 shots/match	12.1 shots/match	12.7 shots/match
Shots against	10.7 shots/match	14.1 shots/match	13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

11.6 fouls/match▲FoulsBorussia Dortmund · Hamburger SV11.9 fouls/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Borussia Dortmund	Hamburger SV	Baseline
Fouls	11.6 fouls/match	11.9 fouls/match	10.4 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Borussia Dortmund

1Draws

0Hamburger SV

8 Nov 2025Hamburger SV — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga1–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Borussia Dortmund favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Hamburger SV in 0 · 4 too close

2.15 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 27/271.15 goals/match

1.04 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 27/271.48 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 2/2—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 2/2—

13.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 27/2712.1 shots/match

10.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 27/2714.1 shots/match

4.93 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 27/274.59 shots/match

3.48 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 27/274.67 shots/match

53.9%Possessionseason · 27/2746.2%

5.7 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/273.63 corners/match

4.52 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 27/275.63 corners/match

1.92 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 25/252.6 cards/match

11.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2711.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

44%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/2722%

100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 27/2767%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Borussia Dortmund69.4

Hamburger SV41.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Borussia Dortmund78.7

Hamburger SV42.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Borussia Dortmund91.7

Hamburger SV45.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Borussia Dortmund30.6

Hamburger SV52.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Borussia Dortmund52.8

Hamburger SV88.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 96%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Borussia Dortmund91.7

Hamburger SV2.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Borussia Dortmund76.4

Hamburger SV48.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.6 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

14.8 shots/match▲Shots5/57.2 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match

53.6%Possession5/540.8%

6.8 corners/matchCorners5/52.6 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards3/31.67 cards/match

12.2 fouls/matchFouls5/59 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

2.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.4 goals/match

1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.3 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

15.3 shots/match▲Shots10/109.6 shots/match

5.3 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.8 shots/match

56%Possession10/1045.2%

6.8 corners/matchCorners10/103.6 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards8/82.38 cards/match

11.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

27 / 27 matches

2.15 goals/match▲Goals scored27/271.15 goals/match

1.04 goals/match▲Goals allowed27/271.48 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

13.5 shots/match▲Shots27/2712.1 shots/match

4.93 shots/match▲Shots on target27/274.59 shots/match

53.9%Possession27/2746.2%

5.7 corners/matchCorners27/273.63 corners/match

1.92 cards/matchCards25/252.6 cards/match

11.6 fouls/matchFouls27/2711.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 13 matches

2.36 goals/match▲Goals scored14/130.85 goals/match

0.93 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/131.77 goals/match

—Expected goals2/1—

14.9 shots/match▲Shots14/1311.1 shots/match

5.57 shots/match▲Shots on target14/134.38 shots/match

55.6%Possession14/1347.4%

7.64 corners/matchCorners14/133.77 corners/match

1.5 cards/matchCards12/122.83 cards/match

11.2 fouls/matchFouls14/1311.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.12 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples27 / 27home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Mar 2026, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4