PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 7 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeVolkswagen ArenaFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricVfL WolfsburgBorussia Dortmund
Shots12 shots/match21 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Possession35%65%
Corners4 corners/match8 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Borussia Dortmund's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: VfL Wolfsburg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Borussia Dortmund's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Borussia Dortmund's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.05 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.8 goals/match2.05 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

VfL Wolfsburg show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

VfL Wolfsburg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.8 shots/match▲ShotsVfL Wolfsburg · Borussia Dortmund13.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricVfL WolfsburgBorussia DortmundBaseline
Shots11.8 shots/match13.2 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against15.1 shots/match10.8 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0VfL Wolfsburg
0Draws
1Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga1–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

VfL Wolfsburg favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Borussia Dortmund in 10 · 4 too close

1.38 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 21/21▲2.05 goals/match
2.1 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 21/21▲0.95 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 21/21▲13.2 shots/match
15.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 21/21▲10.8 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 21/21▲4.76 shots/match
5.19 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 21/21▲3.29 shots/match
46.9%Possessionseason · 21/2153.9%
3.81 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/215.38 corners/match
7.62 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 21/21▲4.67 corners/match
2.05 cards/matchCardsseason · 21/21▲1.86 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2111.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
5%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/21▲48%
81%Scoring frequencyseason · 21/21▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

VfL Wolfsburg41.7
Borussia Dortmund80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

VfL Wolfsburg32.4
Borussia Dortmund73.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

VfL Wolfsburg13.9
Borussia Dortmund91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

VfL Wolfsburg41.7
Borussia Dortmund30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

VfL Wolfsburg58.3
Borussia Dortmund52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

VfL Wolfsburg2.8
Borussia Dortmund75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

VfL Wolfsburg27.8
Borussia Dortmund69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.8 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲16.6 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.6 shots/match
53%Possession5/556.6%
5 corners/matchCorners5/56 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls5/512 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.4 goals/match
2.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.5 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.3 shots/match
3.7 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5 shots/match
48.4%Possession10/1052.3%
3.3 corners/matchCorners10/105.1 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/102.1 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

21 / 21 matches
1.38 goals/matchGoals scored21/21▲2.05 goals/match
2.1 goals/matchGoals allowed21/21▲0.95 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.8 shots/matchShots21/21▲13.2 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target21/21▲4.76 shots/match
46.9%Possession21/2153.9%
3.81 corners/matchCorners21/215.38 corners/match
2.05 cards/matchCards21/211.86 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls21/2111.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 11 matches
1.55 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲1.91 goals/match
2.09 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲1.09 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.3 shots/match▲Shots11/1112.1 shots/match
4.73 shots/match▲Shots on target11/114.09 shots/match
49%Possession11/1151.9%
4.73 corners/matchCorners11/113.73 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards11/112.27 cards/match
12.1 fouls/matchFouls11/1111.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.79 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.92 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Feb 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsVfL WolfsburgBorussia Dortmund
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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