Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 20 Dec 2025, 14:30 UTCFull timeVolkswagen ArenaFull-time recap

VfL Wolfsburg

LLDWW

3–4Full-time recap

SC Freiburg

WLWLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	VfL Wolfsburg	SC Freiburg
Shots	13 shots/match	15 shots/match▲
Shots on target	6 shots/match	8 shots/match▲
Possession	56%	44%
Corners	2 corners/match	6 corners/match
Fouls	16 fouls/match	8 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match	1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: SC Freiburg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

SC Freiburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

SC Freiburg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.67 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.4 goals/match	1.67 goals/match	1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

VfL Wolfsburg favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · SC Freiburg in 8 · 6 too close

1.53 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 15/15▲1.67 goals/match

1.87 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 15/15▲1.73 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

12 shots/matchShotsseason · 15/15▲13.1 shots/match

14.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 15/15▲12.1 shots/match

4.33 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 15/154.2 shots/match

5.07 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 15/15▲4 shots/match

45.9%Possessionseason · 15/1551%

3.53 corners/matchCornersseason · 15/154.87 corners/match

7.87 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 15/15▲3.27 corners/match

2 cards/matchCardsseason · 15/15▲1.6 cards/match

11.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/158.93 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

7%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/15▲27%

80%Scoring frequencyseason · 15/1580%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

VfL Wolfsburg25

SC Freiburg63.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

VfL Wolfsburg43.5

SC Freiburg56.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

VfL Wolfsburg21.3

SC Freiburg62.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

VfL Wolfsburg58.3

SC Freiburg47.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

VfL Wolfsburg59.8

SC Freiburg12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

VfL Wolfsburg2.8

SC Freiburg38.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

VfL Wolfsburg36.1

SC Freiburg38.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.4 goals/match

2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.4 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲16.6 shots/match

5.6 shots/matchShots on target5/55.6 shots/match

45%Possession5/553%

3 corners/matchCorners5/55.8 corners/match

2.4 cards/matchCards5/51 cards/match

11.6 fouls/matchFouls5/59 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.6 goals/matchGoals scored10/101.6 goals/match

2.1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.7 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

10.9 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.8 shots/match

4.7 shots/matchShots on target10/104.5 shots/match

44.6%Possession10/1051.7%

2.9 corners/matchCorners10/105 corners/match

1.9 cards/matchCards10/101.4 cards/match

11.3 fouls/matchFouls10/108.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

15 / 15 matches

1.53 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲1.67 goals/match

1.87 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲1.73 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

12 shots/matchShots15/15▲13.1 shots/match

4.33 shots/matchShots on target15/154.2 shots/match

45.9%Possession15/1551%

3.53 corners/matchCorners15/154.87 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards15/151.6 cards/match

11.4 fouls/matchFouls15/158.93 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 8 matches

1.63 goals/match▲Goals scored8/81.38 goals/match

2.38 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲2.13 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

13.5 shots/match▲Shots8/812 shots/match

5.13 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83.38 shots/match

46.6%Possession8/846.6%

4 corners/matchCorners8/83.88 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards8/81.25 cards/match

12.5 fouls/matchFouls8/88.63 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples15 / 15home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 20 Dec 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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