PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025RheinEnergieStadion

1. FC Köln 0–1 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FC Union Berlin won 0–1.

Shots
1311
Shots on target
23
Expected goals
0.551.26
Possession
62%38%

Full time

What the match recorded

Union Berlin beat 1. FC Köln 1–0. Recorded in this match (1. FC Köln – Union Berlin): shots 13–11, shots on target 2–3, expected goals 0.55–1.26, possession 62%–38%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FC Köln's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Köln's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.47 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.47 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

1. FC Köln have recorded the higher season possession share.

48.1% ●Possession1. FC Köln · Union Berlin36.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.0 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric1. FC KölnUnion BerlinBaseline
Possession48.1%36.1%48.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots11 shots1. FC Köln 13 shots, 1. FC Union Berlin 11 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots3 shots1. FC Köln 2 shots, 1. FC Union Berlin 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.55 xG1.26 xG1. FC Köln 0.55 xG, 1. FC Union Berlin 1.26 xG
  • Possession62%38%1. FC Köln 62%, 1. FC Union Berlin 38%
  • Corners3 corners6 corners1. FC Köln 3 corners, 1. FC Union Berlin 6 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls18 fouls1. FC Köln 9 fouls, 1. FC Union Berlin 18 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards5 cards1. FC Köln 2 cards, 1. FC Union Berlin 5 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Sebastian Sebulonsen · 1. FC Köln · 42′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIlyas Ansah · Union Berlin · 30′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSebastian Sebulonsen · 1. FC Köln · 66′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEric Martel · 1. FC Köln · 5′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln · 25′ · 0.03 xG · on targetSebastian Sebulonsen · 1. FC Köln · 38′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTom Krauß · 1. FC Köln · 60′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSaid El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln · 6′ · 0.04 xG · on targetOliver Burke · Union Berlin · 55′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSebastian Sebulonsen · 1. FC Köln · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln · 23′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJan Thielmann · 1. FC Köln · 60′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLeopold Querfeld · Union Berlin · 67′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAndrás Schäfer · Union Berlin · 90′ · 0.05 xG · goalDiogo Leite · Union Berlin · 14′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedWoo-Yeong Jeong · Union Berlin · 12′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedKristoffer Lund · 1. FC Köln · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAndrás Schäfer · Union Berlin · 88′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedRagnar Ache · 1. FC Köln · 38′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAljoscha Kemlein · Union Berlin · 67′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedRani Khedira · Union Berlin · 90′ · 0.19 xG · on targetDiogo Leite · Union Berlin · 85′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedLivan Burcu · Union Berlin · 85′ · 0.32 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FC Köln: 13 shots, 2 on target, 0.55 xG. Union Berlin: 11 shots, 3 on target, 1.29 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′András Schäfer · Union Berlin · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FC Köln 0.55 xG · Union Berlin 1.29 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

11. FC Köln
1Draws
31. FC Union Berlin
1. FC Köln — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga3–2
1. FC Union Berlin — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga2–0
1. FC Union Berlin — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga0–0
1. FC Köln — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga0–1
1. FC Union Berlin — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Köln favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FC Union Berlin in 5 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Köln15 matches1. FC Union Berlin15 matches
1.47 goals/match ▲Goals scored15/151.33 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed15/151.53 goals/match
1.36 xG/match ▲Expected goals15/151.18 xG/match
12.5 shots/matchShots15/1512.2 shots/match
4.4 shots/match ▲Shots on target15/153.67 shots/match
48.1% ●Possession15/1536.1%
3.87 corners/matchCorners15/15● 5.4 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards15/152.47 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFouls15/1513.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 20 Dec 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC Köln1. FC Union Berlin
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-head1. FC Köln — 1. FC Union Berlin
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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