PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 20 Dec 2025, 14:30 UTCFull timeRheinEnergieStadionFull-time recap
0–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric1. FC KölnUnion Berlin
Shots13 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match3 shots/match▲
Possession62%38%
Corners3 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match18 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲5 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: 1. FC Köln's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: 1. FC Köln have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

1. FC Köln's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Köln's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.47 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.47 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

1. FC Köln have recorded the higher season possession share.

48.1%▲Possession1. FC Köln · Union Berlin36.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.0 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric1. FC KölnUnion BerlinBaseline
Possession48.1%36.1%48.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

1. FC Köln favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Union Berlin in 4 · 6 too close

1.47 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 15/151.33 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 15/151.53 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 15/1512.2 shots/match
14.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 15/15▲12.9 shots/match
4.47 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 15/153.67 shots/match
4.67 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 15/15▲4.33 shots/match
48.1%Possessionseason · 15/1536.1%
3.87 corners/matchCornersseason · 15/155.4 corners/match
6.47 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 15/15▲4.8 corners/match
1.8 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 15/152.47 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/1513.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
13%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/15▲27%
80%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 15/1567%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

1. FC Köln47.2
Union Berlin2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

1. FC Köln55.6
Union Berlin32.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

1. FC Köln43.5
Union Berlin61.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

1. FC Köln52.8
Union Berlin97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

1. FC Köln23.6
Union Berlin80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

1. FC Köln13.9
Union Berlin80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

1. FC Köln36.8
Union Berlin57
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10 shots/matchShots5/5▲12 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target5/54 shots/match
51.4%Possession5/543.2%
2.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.6 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
7.6 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/101.2 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShots10/1012.1 shots/match
4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.6 shots/match
49.4%Possession10/1038.4%
3.5 corners/matchCorners10/105.5 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/102.8 cards/match
8.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

15 / 15 matches
1.47 goals/match▲Goals scored15/151.33 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed15/151.53 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.5 shots/matchShots15/1512.2 shots/match
4.47 shots/match▲Shots on target15/153.67 shots/match
48.1%Possession15/1536.1%
3.87 corners/matchCorners15/155.4 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards15/152.47 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFouls15/1513.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71 goals/match
1.57 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71.71 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.3 shots/match▲Shots7/712 shots/match
5.71 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73.57 shots/match
50.4%Possession7/737.3%
4.14 corners/matchCorners7/75.14 corners/match
1.43 cards/matchCards7/71.71 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFouls7/711.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.88 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.79 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 20 Dec 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
Teams1. FC KölnUnion Berlin
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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