PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 13 Dec 2025, 17:30 UTCFull timeBayArenaFull-time recap
2–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBayer Leverkusen1. FC Köln
Shots17 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession61%39%
Corners8 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match6 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: 1. FC Köln's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Bayer Leverkusen's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

1. FC Köln's recent record differs from the season

weak

1. FC Köln's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.57 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.57 goals/match1.48 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bayer Leverkusen have a visible home split

moderate

Bayer Leverkusen's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.6 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season14.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.6 shots/match14.4 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Bayer Leverkusen show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Bayer Leverkusen's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.4 shots/match▲ShotsBayer Leverkusen · 1. FC Köln12.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBayer Leverkusen1. FC KölnBaseline
Shots14.4 shots/match12.5 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against11.3 shots/match14.3 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bayer Leverkusen favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · 1. FC Köln in 1 · 6 too close

2.14 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 14/141.57 goals/match
1.36 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 14/141.64 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 14/1412.5 shots/match
11.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 14/1414.3 shots/match
4.86 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 14/144.64 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 14/144.79 shots/match
59.8%Possessionseason · 14/1447.1%
5.07 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/143.93 corners/match
5.14 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 14/146.5 corners/match
2.57 cards/matchCardsseason · 14/14▲1.71 cards/match
8.57 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/149 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
29%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/1414%
86%Scoring frequencyseason · 14/1486%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bayer Leverkusen91.7
1. FC Köln36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bayer Leverkusen84.3
1. FC Köln58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bayer Leverkusen75.9
1. FC Köln48.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bayer Leverkusen30.6
1. FC Köln63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bayer Leverkusen38.9
1. FC Köln22.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bayer Leverkusen50
1. FC Köln13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bayer Leverkusen53.5
1. FC Köln36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.6 shots/match▲Shots5/511.2 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target5/54.8 shots/match
65.6%Possession5/551.8%
7.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.4 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
6.6 fouls/matchFouls5/58.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.3 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.4 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.8 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target10/104.7 shots/match
62.1%Possession10/1047.5%
5.1 corners/matchCorners10/104 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match
7.9 fouls/matchFouls10/108.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

14 / 14 matches
2.14 goals/match▲Goals scored14/141.57 goals/match
1.36 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.64 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shots14/1412.5 shots/match
4.86 shots/matchShots on target14/144.64 shots/match
59.8%Possession14/1447.1%
5.07 corners/matchCorners14/143.93 corners/match
2.57 cards/matchCards14/141.71 cards/match
8.57 fouls/matchFouls14/149 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 8 matches
2.25 goals/match▲Goals scored8/81 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.63 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.6 shots/match▲Shots8/811 shots/match
5.75 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83.38 shots/match
62.8%Possession8/846.1%
6 corners/matchCorners8/83.63 corners/match
2.38 cards/matchCards8/82.13 cards/match
8.88 fouls/matchFouls8/89 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.12 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.12 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 13 Dec 2025, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBayer Leverkusen1. FC Köln
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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