PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 14 Dec 2025, 14:30 UTCFull timeEuropa-Park-StadionFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricSC FreiburgBorussia Dortmund
Shots21 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession57%43%
Corners6 corners/match0 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: SC Freiburg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Borussia Dortmund's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

SC Freiburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

SC Freiburg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.5 goals/match1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Borussia Dortmund have a visible away split

moderate

Borussia Dortmund's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.1 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.1 shots/match12 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

SC Freiburg favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Borussia Dortmund in 7 · 4 too close

1.5 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 14/14▲1.71 goals/match
1.64 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 14/14▲0.86 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 14/1412 shots/match
12 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 14/14▲11.4 shots/match
3.93 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 14/14▲4.43 shots/match
3.86 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 14/14▲3.29 shots/match
51.5%Possessionseason · 14/1452.3%
4.79 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/145.14 corners/match
3.36 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 14/145 corners/match
1.64 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 14/141.79 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1411.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
29%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/14▲50%
79%Scoring frequencyseason · 14/14▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

SC Freiburg63.9
Borussia Dortmund69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

SC Freiburg48.2
Borussia Dortmund46.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

SC Freiburg69.4
Borussia Dortmund89.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

SC Freiburg36.1
Borussia Dortmund2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

SC Freiburg12.5
Borussia Dortmund51.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

SC Freiburg33.3
Borussia Dortmund63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

SC Freiburg34
Borussia Dortmund50.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.8 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.2 shots/match▲Shots5/511 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.8 shots/match
56.2%Possession5/544.8%
6.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFouls5/59.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.5 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.9 shots/match▲Shots10/1012 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target10/103.7 shots/match
51.6%Possession10/1048.7%
5 corners/matchCorners10/105.3 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards10/101.7 cards/match
8.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

14 / 14 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲1.71 goals/match
1.64 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲0.86 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.9 shots/match▲Shots14/1412 shots/match
3.93 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲4.43 shots/match
51.5%Possession14/1452.3%
4.79 corners/matchCorners14/145.14 corners/match
1.64 cards/matchCards14/141.79 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFouls14/1411.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 8 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored7/81.63 goals/match
1.29 goals/matchGoals allowed7/8▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.3 shots/match▲Shots7/810.1 shots/match
5.14 shots/match▲Shots on target7/83.75 shots/match
56%Possession7/850.3%
6 corners/matchCorners7/83.25 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards7/82.5 cards/match
9.29 fouls/matchFouls7/811.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.92 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Dec 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsSC FreiburgBorussia Dortmund
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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