PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 14 Dec 2025, 16:30 UTCFull timeAllianz ArenaFull-time recap
2–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBayern MünchenFSV Mainz 05
Shots24 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target11 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession85%15%
Corners7 corners/match0 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: FSV Mainz 05's last-five shots average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

19.5 shots/match▲ShotsBayern München · FSV Mainz 0510.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBayern MünchenFSV Mainz 05Baseline
Shots19.5 shots/match10.6 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against8.79 shots/match15.9 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's last-five shots average is below their season average.

6.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season10.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots6.8 shots/match10.6 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

67.6%▲PossessionBayern München · FSV Mainz 0545.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 22.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBayern MünchenFSV Mainz 05Baseline
Possession67.6%45.3%47.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bayern München favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · FSV Mainz 05 in 0 · 4 too close

3.64 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 14/140.93 goals/match
0.79 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 14/141.86 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
19.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 14/1410.6 shots/match
8.79 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 14/1415.9 shots/match
8.43 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 14/142.57 shots/match
1.86 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 14/145.71 shots/match
67.6%Possessionseason · 14/1445.3%
5.79 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/144.79 corners/match
3.86 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 14/144.29 corners/match
2.36 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 14/142.86 cards/match
9.71 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1412.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/140%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 14/1450%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bayern München97.2
FSV Mainz 0525
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bayern München97.2
FSV Mainz 054.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bayern München97.2
FSV Mainz 0514.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bayern München86.1
FSV Mainz 0519.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bayern München47.2
FSV Mainz 0580.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bayern München88.9
FSV Mainz 0533.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bayern München77.1
FSV Mainz 0528.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
3.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
19.2 shots/match▲Shots5/56.8 shots/match
7.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/51.6 shots/match
74%Possession5/536.8%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/54 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/53.2 cards/match
8 fouls/matchFouls5/511.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
3.3 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.8 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
19.4 shots/match▲Shots10/108.8 shots/match
7.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.5 shots/match
69.2%Possession10/1042.8%
6.1 corners/matchCorners10/104 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCards10/103 cards/match
9.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

14 / 14 matches
3.64 goals/match▲Goals scored14/140.93 goals/match
0.79 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.86 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
19.5 shots/match▲Shots14/1410.6 shots/match
8.43 shots/match▲Shots on target14/142.57 shots/match
67.6%Possession14/1445.3%
5.79 corners/matchCorners14/144.79 corners/match
2.36 cards/matchCards14/142.86 cards/match
9.71 fouls/matchFouls14/1412.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 7 matches
3.88 goals/match▲Goals scored8/71.14 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/72.14 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
20.6 shots/match▲Shots8/78.86 shots/match
8.63 shots/match▲Shots on target8/72.29 shots/match
68.8%Possession8/741.3%
6.38 corners/matchCorners8/74.29 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards8/73.43 cards/match
9.63 fouls/matchFouls8/711.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.08 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.88 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Dec 2025, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBayern MünchenFSV Mainz 05
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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