PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Allianz Arena

FC Bayern München 2–2 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga

2–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Bayern München and 1. FSV Mainz 05 drew 2–2.

Shots
245
Shots on target
112
Expected goals
4.50.6
Possession
85%15%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bayern München and FSV Mainz 05 drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Bayern München – FSV Mainz 05): shots 24–5, shots on target 11–2, expected goals 4.5–0.6, possession 85%–15%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

19.5 shots/match ▲ShotsBayern München · FSV Mainz 0510.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBayern MünchenFSV Mainz 05Baseline
Shots19.5 shots/match10.6 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against8.71 shots/match15.9 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's last-five shots average is below their season average.

6.8 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season10.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots6.8 shots/match10.6 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

67.6% ●PossessionBayern München · FSV Mainz 0545.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 22.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBayern MünchenFSV Mainz 05Baseline
Possession67.6%45.3%47.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots24 shots5 shotsFC Bayern München 24 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 5 shots
  • Shots on target11 shots2 shotsFC Bayern München 11 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 2 shots
  • Expected goals4.5 xG0.6 xGFC Bayern München 4.5 xG, 1. FSV Mainz 05 0.6 xG
  • Possession85%15%FC Bayern München 85%, 1. FSV Mainz 05 15%
  • Corners7 corners0 cornersFC Bayern München 7 corners, 1. FSV Mainz 05 0 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls8 foulsFC Bayern München 7 fouls, 1. FSV Mainz 05 8 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards2 cardsFC Bayern München 2 cards, 1. FSV Mainz 05 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Serge Gnabry · Bayern München · 72′ · 0.01 xG · on targetLennard Maloney · FSV Mainz 05 · 75′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSerge Gnabry · Bayern München · 88′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLennart Karl · Bayern München · 6′ · 0.02 xG · on targetHarry Kane · Bayern München · 29′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSerge Gnabry · Bayern München · 79′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · Bayern München · 17′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJosip Stanišić · Bayern München · 23′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · Bayern München · 23′ · 0.03 xG · on targetTom Bischof · Bayern München · 53′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedArnaud Nordin · FSV Mainz 05 · 81′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Jackson · Bayern München · 75′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Jackson · Bayern München · 89′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLeon Goretzka · Bayern München · 43′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLennard Maloney · FSV Mainz 05 · 31′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · Bayern München · 36′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedSerge Gnabry · Bayern München · 22′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedSerge Gnabry · Bayern München · 22′ · 0.14 xG · on targetJoshua Kimmich · Bayern München · 35′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedJae-sung Lee · FSV Mainz 05 · 67′ · 0.15 xG · goalHarry Kane · Bayern München · 79′ · 0.16 xG · on targetKacper Potulski · FSV Mainz 05 · 45′ · 0.19 xG · goalHarry Kane · Bayern München · 34′ · 0.22 xG · on targetSerge Gnabry · Bayern München · 60′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · Bayern München · 64′ · 0.33 xG · on targetSerge Gnabry · Bayern München · 64′ · 0.44 xG · on targetHarry Kane · Bayern München · 20′ · 0.58 xG · on targetHarry Kane · Bayern München · 87′ · 0.82 xG · goalLennart Karl · Bayern München · 29′ · 0.91 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Bayern München: 24 shots, 11 on target, 4.65 xG. FSV Mainz 05: 5 shots, 2 on target, 0.50 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

02.550′HT90′Lennart Karl · Bayern München · 29′Harry Kane · Bayern München · 87′Kacper Potulski · FSV Mainz 05 · 45′Jae-sung Lee · FSV Mainz 05 · 67′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bayern München 4.65 xG · FSV Mainz 05 0.50 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3FC Bayern München
0Draws
21. FSV Mainz 05
FC Bayern München — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga3–0
1. FSV Mainz 05 — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga2–1
FC Bayern München — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga8–1
1. FSV Mainz 05 — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga1–3
1. FSV Mainz 05 — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Bayern München favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FSV Mainz 05 in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Bayern München14 matches1. FSV Mainz 0514 matches
3.64 goals/match ▲Goals scored14/140.93 goals/match
0.79 goals/match ▲Goals allowed14/141.86 goals/match
2.85 xG/match ▲Expected goals14/141.17 xG/match
19.5 shots/match ▲Shots14/1410.6 shots/match
8.43 shots/match ▲Shots on target14/142.57 shots/match
67.6% ●Possession14/1445.3%
5.79 corners/match ●Corners14/144.79 corners/match
2.36 cards/matchCards14/142.86 cards/match
9.71 fouls/matchFouls14/1412.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Dec 2025, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC Bayern München1. FSV Mainz 05
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-headFC Bayern München — 1. FSV Mainz 05
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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