PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2025Tue, 9 Dec 2025, 17:45 UTCFull timeAllianz ArenaFull-time recap
3–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFC Bayern MünchenSporting
Shots23 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Shots on target9 shots/match▲0 shots/match
Expected goals2.16 xG/match▲0.28 xG/match
Possession62%38%
Corners4 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match5 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Harry Kane · FC Bayern München · 3′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDayot Upamecano · FC Bayern München · 75′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 12′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLennart Karl · FC Bayern München · 13′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 13′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSerge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 20′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatheus Reis · Sporting · 22′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 53′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJoshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München · 60′ · 0.03 xG · on targetSerge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 80′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 89′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSerge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 24′ · 0.04 xG · on targetHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 37′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 18′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAlisson Santos · Sporting · 47′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLennart Karl · FC Bayern München · 60′ · 0.05 xG · on targetHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 31′ · 0.06 xG · on targetLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLuis Javier Suárez · Sporting · 36′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJosip Stanišić · FC Bayern München · 42′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 44′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJoshua Kimmich · Sporting · 54′ · 0.12 xG · goalLennart Karl · FC Bayern München · 69′ · 0.12 xG · goalLuis Javier Suárez · Sporting · 83′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedLennart Karl · FC Bayern München · 17′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Tah · FC Bayern München · 77′ · 0.29 xG · goalSerge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 65′ · 0.38 xG · goalLennart Karl · FC Bayern München · 44′ · 0.46 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC Bayern München: 23 shots, 9 on target, 2.19 xG. Sporting: 5 shots, 1 on target, 0.40 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Serge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 65′Lennart Karl · FC Bayern München · 69′Jonathan Tah · FC Bayern München · 77′Joshua Kimmich · Sporting · 54′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC Bayern München 2.19 xG · Sporting 0.40 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Sporting's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Sporting's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Sporting have a visible away split

weak

Sporting's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

5.33 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots5.33 shots/match11.7 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Sporting's recent record differs from the season

weak

Sporting's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match2 goals/match1.55 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Sporting show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Sporting's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

18 shots/match▲ShotsFC Bayern München · Sporting11.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC Bayern MünchenSportingBaseline
Shots18 shots/match11.7 shots/match13.8 shots/match
Shots against10.2 shots/match13.3 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FC Bayern München favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Sporting in 0 · 6 too close

3 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 6/62 goals/match
1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 6/61.33 goals/match
2.52 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 6/61.49 xG/match
1.06 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 6/61.1 xG/match
18 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 6/611.7 shots/match
10.2 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 6/613.3 shots/match
8.17 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 6/64.83 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 6/64.83 shots/match
56.2%Possessionseason · 6/649.8%
4.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/63.17 corners/match
3.83 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 6/64.33 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/610.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
17%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/617%
100%Scoring frequencyseason · 6/6100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC Bayern München79.8
Sporting56
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC Bayern München92.2
Sporting47.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC Bayern München73.7
Sporting53.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC Bayern München75
Sporting22.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC Bayern München48.8
Sporting29.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC Bayern München45.2
Sporting10.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC Bayern München68.8
Sporting28.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
3 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.6 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
2.61 xG/match▲Expected goals5/50.94 xG/match
18.4 shots/match▲Shots5/59.8 shots/match
8.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.2 shots/match
56.2%Possession5/547%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/52.2 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/59.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

6 / 6 matches
3 goals/match▲Goals scored6/62 goals/match
1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.33 goals/match
2.52 xG/match▲Expected goals6/61.49 xG/match
18 shots/match▲Shots6/611.7 shots/match
8.17 shots/match▲Shots on target6/64.83 shots/match
56.2%Possession6/649.8%
4.5 corners/matchCorners6/63.17 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.3 fouls/matchFouls6/610.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

6 / 6 matches
3 goals/match▲Goals scored6/62 goals/match
1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.33 goals/match
2.52 xG/match▲Expected goals6/61.49 xG/match
18 shots/match▲Shots6/611.7 shots/match
8.17 shots/match▲Shots on target6/64.83 shots/match
56.2%Possession6/649.8%
4.5 corners/matchCorners6/63.17 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.3 fouls/matchFouls6/610.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 3 matches
3.33 goals/match▲Goals scored3/31 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/32 goals/match
2.81 xG/match▲Expected goals3/30.61 xG/match
21.7 shots/match▲Shots3/35.33 shots/match
9 shots/match▲Shots on target3/31.67 shots/match
60.3%Possession3/345.7%
6.33 corners/matchCorners3/31.67 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.3 fouls/matchFouls3/39.33 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

12.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/112.9 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 9 Dec 2025, 21:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFC Bayern MünchenSporting
CompetitionUEFA Champions League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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