PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2025Allianz Arena

FC Bayern München 3–1 Sporting · UEFA Champions League

3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Bayern München won 3–1.

Shots
234
Shots on target
90
Expected goals
2.160.28
Possession
62%38%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Bayern München beat Sporting 3–1. Recorded in this match (FC Bayern München – Sporting): shots 23–4, shots on target 9–0, expected goals 2.16–0.28, possession 62%–38%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Sporting have a visible away split

weak

Sporting's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

5.33 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots5.33 shots/match11.7 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Sporting's recent record differs from the season

weak

Sporting's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match2 goals/match1.55 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Sporting show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Sporting's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

18 shots/match ▲ShotsFC Bayern München · Sporting11.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC Bayern MünchenSportingBaseline
Shots18 shots/match11.7 shots/match13.8 shots/match
Shots against10.2 shots/match13.3 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots23 shots4 shotsFC Bayern München 23 shots, Sporting 4 shots
  • Shots on target9 shots0 shotsFC Bayern München 9 shots, Sporting 0 shots
  • Expected goals2.16 xG0.28 xGFC Bayern München 2.16 xG, Sporting 0.28 xG
  • Possession62%38%FC Bayern München 62%, Sporting 38%
  • Corners4 corners3 cornersFC Bayern München 4 corners, Sporting 3 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls5 foulsFC Bayern München 11 fouls, Sporting 5 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Harry Kane · FC Bayern München · 3′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDayot Upamecano · FC Bayern München · 75′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 12′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLennart Karl · FC Bayern München · 13′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 13′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSerge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 20′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatheus Reis · Sporting · 22′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 53′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJoshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München · 60′ · 0.03 xG · on targetSerge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 80′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 89′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSerge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 24′ · 0.04 xG · on targetHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 37′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 18′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAlisson Santos · Sporting · 47′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLennart Karl · FC Bayern München · 60′ · 0.05 xG · on targetHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 31′ · 0.06 xG · on targetLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLuis Javier Suárez · Sporting · 36′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJosip Stanišić · FC Bayern München · 42′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 44′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJoshua Kimmich · Sporting · 54′ · 0.12 xG · goalLennart Karl · FC Bayern München · 69′ · 0.12 xG · goalLuis Javier Suárez · Sporting · 83′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedLennart Karl · FC Bayern München · 17′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Tah · FC Bayern München · 77′ · 0.29 xG · goalSerge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 65′ · 0.38 xG · goalLennart Karl · FC Bayern München · 44′ · 0.46 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC Bayern München: 23 shots, 9 on target, 2.19 xG. Sporting: 5 shots, 1 on target, 0.40 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Serge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 65′Lennart Karl · FC Bayern München · 69′Jonathan Tah · FC Bayern München · 77′Joshua Kimmich · Sporting · 54′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC Bayern München 2.19 xG · Sporting 0.40 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Bayern München favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Sporting in 0 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Bayern München6 matchesSporting6 matches
3 goals/match ▲Goals scored6/62 goals/match
1.17 goals/match ▲Goals allowed6/61.33 goals/match
2.52 xG/match ▲Expected goals6/61.49 xG/match
18 shots/match ▲Shots6/611.7 shots/match
8.17 shots/match ▲Shots on target6/64.83 shots/match
56.2% ●Possession6/649.8%
4.5 corners/match ●Corners6/63.17 corners/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls6/610.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 9 Dec 2025, 21:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC Bayern MünchenSporting
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2025/26
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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