PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 6 Dec 2025, 14:30 UTCFull timeMHPArenaFull-time recap
0–5Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricVfB StuttgartBayern München
Shots13 shots/match19 shots/match▲
Shots on target1 shots/match11 shots/match▲
Possession41%59%
Corners3 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls6 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.3 shots/match▲ShotsVfB Stuttgart · Bayern München19.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricVfB StuttgartBayern MünchenBaseline
Shots15.3 shots/match19.2 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against12.7 shots/match9.08 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.54 corners/match▲CornersVfB Stuttgart · Bayern München5.69 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricVfB StuttgartBayern MünchenBaseline
Corners5.54 corners/match5.69 corners/match5 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

58%▲PossessionVfB Stuttgart · Bayern München66.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricVfB StuttgartBayern MünchenBaseline
Possession58%66.2%48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

VfB Stuttgart favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Bayern München in 9 · 4 too close

1.62 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 13/13▲3.77 goals/match
1.69 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 13/13▲0.69 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
15.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 13/13▲19.2 shots/match
12.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 13/13▲9.08 shots/match
5.15 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 13/13▲8.23 shots/match
4.85 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 13/13▲1.85 shots/match
58%Possessionseason · 13/1366.2%
5.54 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/135.69 corners/match
4.77 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 13/13▲4.15 corners/match
2.08 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 13/132.38 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/139.92 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
31%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/13▲54%
92%Scoring frequencyseason · 13/13▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

VfB Stuttgart86.1
Bayern München97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

VfB Stuttgart76.8
Bayern München97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

VfB Stuttgart49.1
Bayern München97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

VfB Stuttgart58.3
Bayern München86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

VfB Stuttgart47.2
Bayern München50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

VfB Stuttgart86.1
Bayern München91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

VfB Stuttgart75
Bayern München79.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲3.8 goals/match
3 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲18 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.2 shots/match
56.2%Possession5/568.8%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/56.4 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/58.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲3.5 goals/match
1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.8 shots/matchShots10/10▲18.8 shots/match
5.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲7.5 shots/match
57.4%Possession10/1066.9%
5.4 corners/matchCorners10/105.9 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards10/102.1 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls10/109.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

13 / 13 matches
1.62 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲3.77 goals/match
1.69 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲0.69 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.3 shots/matchShots13/13▲19.2 shots/match
5.15 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲8.23 shots/match
58%Possession13/1366.2%
5.54 corners/matchCorners13/135.69 corners/match
2.08 cards/matchCards13/132.38 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls13/139.92 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 6 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲3.33 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲0.83 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.2 shots/matchShots6/6▲18 shots/match
5.67 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲8.17 shots/match
55.2%Possession6/666%
4.83 corners/matchCorners6/65 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards6/63.17 cards/match
9.83 fouls/matchFouls6/69.83 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 6 Dec 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsVfB StuttgartBayern München
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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