Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 20 Dec 2025, 14:30 UTCFull timeMHPArenaFull-time recap

VfB Stuttgart

WDLLW

0–0Full-time recap

1899 Hoffenheim

WDWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	VfB Stuttgart	1899 Hoffenheim
Shots	10 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Shots on target	3 shots/match▲	1 shots/match
Possession	47%	53%
Corners	4 corners/match	2 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	17 fouls/match
Yellow cards	3 cards/match	2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: 1899 Hoffenheim's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

1899 Hoffenheim's recent record differs from the season

weak

1899 Hoffenheim's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.93 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	1.93 goals/match	1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

VfB Stuttgart favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · 1899 Hoffenheim in 2 · 7 too close

1.67 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 15/15▲1.93 goals/match

1.47 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 15/15▲1.33 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

15.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 15/1512.7 shots/match

11.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 15/1512.3 shots/match

5.47 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 15/154.53 shots/match

4.47 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 15/154.33 shots/match

57.6%Possessionseason · 15/1553.9%

5.67 corners/matchCornersseason · 15/155.07 corners/match

4.27 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 15/155.4 corners/match

2 cards/matchCardsseason · 15/151.93 cards/match

10.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/1514.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

40%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/1520%

87%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 15/1580%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

VfB Stuttgart86.1

1899 Hoffenheim75

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

VfB Stuttgart77.8

1899 Hoffenheim69.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

VfB Stuttgart63.9

1899 Hoffenheim67.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

VfB Stuttgart69.4

1899 Hoffenheim25

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

VfB Stuttgart43.1

1899 Hoffenheim72.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

VfB Stuttgart86.1

1899 Hoffenheim52.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

VfB Stuttgart72.2

1899 Hoffenheim70.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.6 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

15.4 shots/match▲Shots5/512.2 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match

54.2%Possession5/556.8%

5.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match

2.2 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match

8.8 fouls/matchFouls5/514.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.9 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

16 shots/match▲Shots10/1012.6 shots/match

5.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.2 shots/match

57.3%Possession10/1055.7%

5.1 corners/matchCorners10/105.3 corners/match

2.1 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match

9.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

15 / 15 matches

1.67 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲1.93 goals/match

1.47 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲1.33 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

15.5 shots/match▲Shots15/1512.7 shots/match

5.47 shots/match▲Shots on target15/154.53 shots/match

57.6%Possession15/1553.9%

5.67 corners/matchCorners15/155.07 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards15/151.93 cards/match

10.2 fouls/matchFouls15/1514.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 8 matches

1.29 goals/matchGoals scored7/8▲1.75 goals/match

1.14 goals/matchGoals allowed7/81.13 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

15.3 shots/match▲Shots7/811.5 shots/match

5.29 shots/match▲Shots on target7/84.38 shots/match

54%Possession7/852.9%

4.71 corners/matchCorners7/84.25 corners/match

2.14 cards/matchCards7/82.13 cards/match

9.86 fouls/matchFouls7/814.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.83 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples15 / 15home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 20 Dec 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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