Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 13 Dec 2025, 14:30 UTCFull timeMillerntor-StadionFull-time recap

FC St. Pauli

LLLLD

2–1Full-time recap

1. FC Heidenheim

DLLWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	FC St. Pauli	1. FC Heidenheim
Shots	8 shots/match	20 shots/match▲
Shots on target	5 shots/match	7 shots/match▲
Possession	36%	64%
Corners	4 corners/match	11 corners/match
Fouls	6 fouls/match	15 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match▲	3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FC St. Pauli's last-five shots average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

FC St. Pauli's recent record differs from the season

weak

FC St. Pauli's last-five shots average is below their season average.

8.4 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season10.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	8.4 shots/match	10.9 shots/match	12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FC St. Pauli favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · 1. FC Heidenheim in 2 · 9 too close

0.93 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 14/140.93 goals/match

1.86 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 14/142.14 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

10.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 14/1411.4 shots/match

11.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 14/1415.3 shots/match

3.57 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 14/143.71 shots/match

5.64 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 14/14▲5.14 shots/match

47.5%Possessionseason · 14/1442.9%

5.07 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/145.29 corners/match

4.57 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 14/144.64 corners/match

1.86 cards/matchCardsseason · 14/141.79 cards/match

10.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1410.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

7%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/140%

57%Scoring frequencyseason · 14/14▲64%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC St. Pauli41.7

1. FC Heidenheim8.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC St. Pauli7.4

1. FC Heidenheim13.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC St. Pauli34.2

1. FC Heidenheim12

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC St. Pauli2.8

1. FC Heidenheim69.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC St. Pauli44.5

1. FC Heidenheim47.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC St. Pauli50

1. FC Heidenheim66.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC St. Pauli27.1

1. FC Heidenheim38.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored5/51 goals/match

1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.6 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

8.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲10.8 shots/match

2.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲2.8 shots/match

39.4%Possession5/547%

4.2 corners/matchCorners5/55.8 corners/match

1.6 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match

8.4 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

0.6 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.1 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/102.1 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

10.3 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.2 shots/match

2.8 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲3.8 shots/match

45.9%Possession10/1044.2%

5.4 corners/matchCorners10/105.2 corners/match

1.8 cards/matchCards10/101.4 cards/match

9.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

14 / 14 matches

0.93 goals/matchGoals scored14/140.93 goals/match

1.86 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/142.14 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

10.9 shots/matchShots14/1411.4 shots/match

3.57 shots/matchShots on target14/143.71 shots/match

47.5%Possession14/1442.9%

5.07 corners/matchCorners14/145.29 corners/match

1.86 cards/matchCards14/141.79 cards/match

10.6 fouls/matchFouls14/1410.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches

1.14 goals/match▲Goals scored7/70.71 goals/match

2.14 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72.43 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.9 shots/match▲Shots7/710.4 shots/match

4.86 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73.43 shots/match

51%Possession7/744%

7.14 corners/matchCorners7/75.43 corners/match

2.14 cards/matchCards7/72 cards/match

10.4 fouls/matchFouls7/711.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples14 / 14home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 13 Dec 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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