PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Volkswagen Arena

VfL Wolfsburg 1–3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga

1–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Bayer 04 Leverkusen won 1–3.

Shots
217
Shots on target
103
Expected goals
2.131.1
Possession
38%62%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bayer Leverkusen beat VfL Wolfsburg 3–1. Recorded in this match (VfL Wolfsburg – Bayer Leverkusen): shots 21–7, shots on target 10–3, expected goals 2.13–1.1, possession 38%–62%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Bayer Leverkusen have a visible away split

moderate

Bayer Leverkusen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.8 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.8 shots/match13.7 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Bayer Leverkusen's recent record differs from the season

weak

Bayer Leverkusen's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.45 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3 goals/match2.45 goals/match1.48 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayer Leverkusen have recorded the higher season possession share.

45.5%PossessionVfL Wolfsburg · Bayer Leverkusen● 58.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricVfL WolfsburgBayer LeverkusenBaseline
Possession45.5%58.6%48.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots21 shots7 shotsVfL Wolfsburg 21 shots, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 7 shots
  • Shots on target10 shots3 shotsVfL Wolfsburg 10 shots, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3 shots
  • Expected goals2.13 xG1.1 xGVfL Wolfsburg 2.13 xG, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.1 xG
  • Possession38%62%VfL Wolfsburg 38%, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 62%
  • Corners9 corners1 cornerVfL Wolfsburg 9 corners, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1 corner
  • Fouls12 fouls7 foulsVfL Wolfsburg 12 fouls, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 7 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards1 cardVfL Wolfsburg 2 cards, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Konstantinos Koulierakis · VfL Wolfsburg · 47′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMohamed Amoura · VfL Wolfsburg · 53′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer Leverkusen · 56′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Arnold · VfL Wolfsburg · 73′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDenis Vavro · VfL Wolfsburg · 73′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer Leverkusen · 66′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSaël Kumbedi · VfL Wolfsburg · 82′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJarell Quansah · Bayer Leverkusen · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLovro Majer · VfL Wolfsburg · 14′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMohamed Amoura · VfL Wolfsburg · 55′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedYannick Gerhardt · VfL Wolfsburg · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLovro Majer · VfL Wolfsburg · 81′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 82′ · 0.05 xG · on targetDženan Pejčinović · VfL Wolfsburg · 11′ · 0.06 xG · on targetEdmond Tapsoba · Bayer Leverkusen · 24′ · 0.06 xG · goalMattias Svanberg · VfL Wolfsburg · 90′ · 0.07 xG · on targetDženan Pejčinović · VfL Wolfsburg · 19′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLovro Majer · VfL Wolfsburg · 44′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedYannick Gerhardt · VfL Wolfsburg · 21′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMattias Svanberg · VfL Wolfsburg · 68′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMattias Svanberg · VfL Wolfsburg · 83′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedJenson Seelt · VfL Wolfsburg · 32′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedDženan Pejčinović · VfL Wolfsburg · 47′ · 0.20 xG · on targetJonas Hofmann · Bayer Leverkusen · 9′ · 0.22 xG · goalErnest Poku · Bayer Leverkusen · 60′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedDenis Vavro · VfL Wolfsburg · 57′ · 0.31 xG · goalMalik Tillman · Bayer Leverkusen · 33′ · 0.39 xG · goalLovro Majer · VfL Wolfsburg · 41′ · 0.44 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

VfL Wolfsburg: 21 shots, 10 on target, 2.09 xG. Bayer Leverkusen: 7 shots, 3 on target, 1.01 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Denis Vavro · VfL Wolfsburg · 57′Jonas Hofmann · Bayer Leverkusen · 9′Edmond Tapsoba · Bayer Leverkusen · 24′Malik Tillman · Bayer Leverkusen · 33′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: VfL Wolfsburg 2.09 xG · Bayer Leverkusen 1.01 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0VfL Wolfsburg
2Draws
3Bayer 04 Leverkusen
VfL Wolfsburg — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga0–0
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga4–3
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga2–0
VfL Wolfsburg — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga1–2
VfL Wolfsburg — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: VfL Wolfsburg favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Bayer 04 Leverkusen in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

VfL Wolfsburg11 matchesBayer 04 Leverkusen11 matches
1.18 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲ 2.45 goals/match
1.91 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲ 1.36 goals/match
1.32 xG/matchExpected goals11/11▲ 1.81 xG/match
12.9 shots/matchShots11/11▲ 13.7 shots/match
4.27 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲ 5.09 shots/match
45.5%Possession11/11● 58.6%
4.27 corners/match ●Corners11/114.18 corners/match
1.82 cards/matchCards11/112.55 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls11/119 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 22 Nov 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVfL WolfsburgBayer 04 Leverkusen
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-headVfL Wolfsburg — Bayer 04 Leverkusen
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required