PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 22 Nov 2025, 14:30 UTCFull timeVolkswagen ArenaFull-time recap
1–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricVfL WolfsburgBayer Leverkusen
Shots21 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target10 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession38%62%
Corners9 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match7 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bayer Leverkusen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Bayer Leverkusen's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Bayer Leverkusen have a visible away split

moderate

Bayer Leverkusen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.8 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.8 shots/match13.7 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Bayer Leverkusen's recent record differs from the season

weak

Bayer Leverkusen's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.45 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3 goals/match2.45 goals/match1.48 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayer Leverkusen have recorded the higher season possession share.

45.5%▲PossessionVfL Wolfsburg · Bayer Leverkusen58.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricVfL WolfsburgBayer LeverkusenBaseline
Possession45.5%58.6%48.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

VfL Wolfsburg favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Bayer Leverkusen in 9 · 4 too close

1.18 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 11/11▲2.45 goals/match
1.91 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 11/11▲1.36 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 11/11▲13.7 shots/match
14.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 11/11▲12.1 shots/match
4.27 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 11/11▲5.09 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 11/11▲4.45 shots/match
45.5%Possessionseason · 11/1158.6%
4.27 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/114.18 corners/match
7.36 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 11/11▲5.55 corners/match
1.82 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 11/112.55 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/119 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
9%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/11▲27%
73%Scoring frequencyseason · 11/11▲91%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

VfL Wolfsburg13.9
Bayer Leverkusen86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

VfL Wolfsburg36.1
Bayer Leverkusen82.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

VfL Wolfsburg38
Bayer Leverkusen74.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

VfL Wolfsburg69.4
Bayer Leverkusen13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

VfL Wolfsburg48.6
Bayer Leverkusen41.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

VfL Wolfsburg25
Bayer Leverkusen13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

VfL Wolfsburg40.3
Bayer Leverkusen45.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲3 goals/match
2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.6 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target5/55.2 shots/match
41.2%Possession5/560.8%
3.6 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls5/57.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.6 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.4 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.4 shots/match
45%Possession10/1058.5%
4.2 corners/matchCorners10/104 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/102.8 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls10/109 fouls/match

Window

Season

11 / 11 matches
1.18 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲2.45 goals/match
1.91 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲1.36 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.9 shots/matchShots11/11▲13.7 shots/match
4.27 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲5.09 shots/match
45.5%Possession11/1158.6%
4.27 corners/matchCorners11/114.18 corners/match
1.82 cards/matchCards11/112.55 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls11/119 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 5 matches
1.17 goals/matchGoals scored6/5▲2.4 goals/match
2.33 goals/matchGoals allowed6/5▲2.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.2 shots/match▲Shots6/59.8 shots/match
5.33 shots/match▲Shots on target6/54 shots/match
45.7%Possession6/553.4%
5 corners/matchCorners6/53.2 corners/match
1.83 cards/matchCards6/52.8 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls6/58.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 22 Nov 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsVfL WolfsburgBayer Leverkusen
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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