PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Fri, 17 Oct 2025, 18:30 UTCFull timeStadion An der Alten FörstereiFull-time recap
3–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricUnion BerlinBorussia Mönchengladbach
Shots16 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession37%63%
Corners6 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls21 fouls/match15 fouls/match
Yellow cards5 cards/match3 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Borussia Mönchengladbach's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Borussia Mönchengladbach have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Borussia Mönchengladbach's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.86 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.86 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Borussia Mönchengladbach have recorded the higher season possession share.

31.6%▲PossessionUnion Berlin · Borussia Mönchengladbach51.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 19.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricUnion BerlinBorussia MönchengladbachBaseline
Possession31.6%51.1%50.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

moderate

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

14.9 fouls/match▲FoulsUnion Berlin · Borussia Mönchengladbach13.4 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricUnion BerlinBorussia MönchengladbachBaseline
Fouls14.9 fouls/match13.4 fouls/match11.3 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Union Berlin favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Borussia Mönchengladbach in 6 · 5 too close

1.57 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 7/70.86 goals/match
2 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 7/72.14 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 7/713.1 shots/match
14.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 7/7▲13.4 shots/match
3.86 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 7/7▲5 shots/match
5.86 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 7/7▲5.14 shots/match
31.6%Possessionseason · 7/751.1%
5.14 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/76.29 corners/match
5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 7/7▲4.57 corners/match
2.43 cards/matchCardsseason · 7/7▲2.29 cards/match
14.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/713.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/7▲29%
57%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 7/743%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Union Berlin2.8
Borussia Mönchengladbach52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Union Berlin43.5
Borussia Mönchengladbach41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Union Berlin20.4
Borussia Mönchengladbach36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Union Berlin97.2
Borussia Mönchengladbach63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Union Berlin77.8
Borussia Mönchengladbach66.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Union Berlin52.8
Borussia Mönchengladbach86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Union Berlin52.8
Borussia Mönchengladbach68
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/match▲Shots5/512 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5 shots/match
32.2%Possession5/549.6%
5 corners/matchCorners5/55.4 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
15.2 fouls/matchFouls5/514.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches
1.57 goals/match▲Goals scored7/70.86 goals/match
2 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72.14 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.6 shots/matchShots7/713.1 shots/match
3.86 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲5 shots/match
31.6%Possession7/751.1%
5.14 corners/matchCorners7/76.29 corners/match
2.43 cards/matchCards7/72.29 cards/match
14.9 fouls/matchFouls7/713.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches
1.57 goals/match▲Goals scored7/70.86 goals/match
2 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72.14 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.6 shots/matchShots7/713.1 shots/match
3.86 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲5 shots/match
31.6%Possession7/751.1%
5.14 corners/matchCorners7/76.29 corners/match
2.43 cards/matchCards7/72.29 cards/match
14.9 fouls/matchFouls7/713.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 3 matches
1.75 goals/match▲Goals scored4/30.67 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/31.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shots4/312 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target4/3▲5 shots/match
34.5%Possession4/350%
6.25 corners/matchCorners4/36.67 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards4/33 cards/match
18.3 fouls/matchFouls4/314.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/112 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 17 Oct 2025, 22:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsUnion BerlinBorussia Mönchengladbach
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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