PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 18 Oct 2025, 13:30 UTCFull timeVoith-ArenaFull-time recap
2–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric1. FC HeidenheimWerder Bremen
Shots31 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target11 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession55%45%
Corners12 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: 1. FC Heidenheim's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: 1. FC Heidenheim's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

1. FC Heidenheim's recent record differs from the season

weak

1. FC Heidenheim's last-five shots average is above their season average.

14.6 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots14.6 shots/match12.1 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FC Heidenheim show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

1. FC Heidenheim's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.1 shots/match▲Shots1. FC Heidenheim · Werder Bremen11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric1. FC HeidenheimWerder BremenBaseline
Shots12.1 shots/match11.6 shots/match13.1 shots/match
Shots against15.7 shots/match18.1 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

1. FC Heidenheim favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Werder Bremen in 4 · 5 too close

0.86 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 7/7▲1.57 goals/match
1.86 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 7/72.29 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 7/711.6 shots/match
15.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 7/718.1 shots/match
4.43 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 7/7▲4.86 shots/match
5.57 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 7/76.29 shots/match
42.6%Possessionseason · 7/746.6%
5.43 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/73.14 corners/match
2.71 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 7/76 corners/match
2 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 7/72.71 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/79.29 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/7▲29%
57%Scoring frequencyseason · 7/7▲71%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

1. FC Heidenheim8.3
Werder Bremen25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

1. FC Heidenheim23.2
Werder Bremen42.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

1. FC Heidenheim25.9
Werder Bremen4.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

1. FC Heidenheim75
Werder Bremen30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

1. FC Heidenheim44.5
Werder Bremen44.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

1. FC Heidenheim63.9
Werder Bremen8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

1. FC Heidenheim43.8
Werder Bremen21.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.6 shots/match▲Shots5/511.8 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.8 shots/match
43%Possession5/546.8%
6.6 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls5/59 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches
0.86 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1.57 goals/match
1.86 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72.29 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.1 shots/matchShots7/711.6 shots/match
4.43 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲4.86 shots/match
42.6%Possession7/746.6%
5.43 corners/matchCorners7/73.14 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards7/72.71 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls7/79.29 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches
0.86 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1.57 goals/match
1.86 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72.29 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.1 shots/matchShots7/711.6 shots/match
4.43 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲4.86 shots/match
42.6%Possession7/746.6%
5.43 corners/matchCorners7/73.14 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards7/72.71 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls7/79.29 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲1.75 goals/match
2 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/42.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shots4/410.5 shots/match
4.75 shots/matchShots on target4/44.75 shots/match
44.3%Possession4/444.5%
5.5 corners/matchCorners4/43.25 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards4/41.5 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls4/48.25 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Oct 2025, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4
Teams1. FC HeidenheimWerder Bremen
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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