Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 18 Oct 2025, 13:30 UTCFull timeMewa ArenaFull-time recap

FSV Mainz 05

DLWLL

3–4Full-time recap

Bayer Leverkusen

DWDWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	FSV Mainz 05	Bayer Leverkusen
Shots	12 shots/match	20 shots/match▲
Shots on target	4 shots/match	8 shots/match▲
Possession	42%	58%
Corners	2 corners/match	3 corners/match
Fouls	20 fouls/match	12 fouls/match
Yellow cards	4 cards/match	4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

weak

FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.14 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.4 goals/match	1.14 goals/match	1.54 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FSV Mainz 05 favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Bayer Leverkusen in 7 · 5 too close

1.14 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 7/7▲2.29 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 7/7▲1.57 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

13.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 7/713.3 shots/match

15 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 7/7▲11.9 shots/match

3 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 7/7▲5.43 shots/match

4.86 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 7/7▲4.57 shots/match

51.7%Possessionseason · 7/757%

5.71 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/74 corners/match

3.71 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 7/75.43 corners/match

2.86 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 7/73.57 cards/match

12.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/710.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/7▲14%

43%Scoring frequencyseason · 7/7▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FSV Mainz 0558.3

Bayer Leverkusen86.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FSV Mainz 0526.9

Bayer Leverkusen80.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FSV Mainz 0535.2

Bayer Leverkusen62

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FSV Mainz 0541.7

Bayer Leverkusen8.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FSV Mainz 0572.2

Bayer Leverkusen62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FSV Mainz 0575

Bayer Leverkusen16.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FSV Mainz 0547.9

Bayer Leverkusen50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.4 goals/match

2.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.2 shots/match

3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.4 shots/match

50.2%Possession5/556.8%

4.4 corners/matchCorners5/53 corners/match

2.8 cards/matchCards5/54.4 cards/match

13.4 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches

1.14 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲2.29 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲1.57 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

13.1 shots/matchShots7/713.3 shots/match

3 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲5.43 shots/match

51.7%Possession7/757%

5.71 corners/matchCorners7/74 corners/match

2.86 cards/matchCards7/73.57 cards/match

12.6 fouls/matchFouls7/710.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches

1.14 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲2.29 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲1.57 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

13.1 shots/matchShots7/713.3 shots/match

3 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲5.43 shots/match

51.7%Possession7/757%

5.71 corners/matchCorners7/74 corners/match

2.86 cards/matchCards7/73.57 cards/match

12.6 fouls/matchFouls7/710.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 3 matches

0.75 goals/matchGoals scored4/3▲3 goals/match

2 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/32.33 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

13 shots/match▲Shots4/311.7 shots/match

2.5 shots/matchShots on target4/3▲5.33 shots/match

49.5%Possession4/354.7%

5 corners/matchCorners4/33.67 corners/match

2.25 cards/matchCards4/34 cards/match

12.8 fouls/matchFouls4/311 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

12.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples7 / 7home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Oct 2025, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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