PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Allianz Arena

FC Bayern München 2–1 Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Bayern München won 2–1.

Shots
158
Shots on target
71
Expected goals
2.481.58
Possession
61%39%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bayern München beat Borussia Dortmund 2–1. Recorded in this match (Bayern München – Borussia Dortmund): shots 15–8, shots on target 7–1, expected goals 2.48–1.58, possession 61%–39%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Borussia Dortmund's recent record differs from the season

weak

Borussia Dortmund's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.86 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.86 goals/match1.54 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Borussia Dortmund show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Borussia Dortmund's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

18.9 shots/match ▲ShotsBayern München · Borussia Dortmund11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBayern MünchenBorussia DortmundBaseline
Shots18.9 shots/match11.6 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against9.43 shots/match10.6 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots8 shotsFC Bayern München 15 shots, Borussia Dortmund 8 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots1 shotFC Bayern München 7 shots, Borussia Dortmund 1 shot
  • Expected goals2.48 xG1.58 xGFC Bayern München 2.48 xG, Borussia Dortmund 1.58 xG
  • Possession61%39%FC Bayern München 61%, Borussia Dortmund 39%
  • Corners4 corners3 cornersFC Bayern München 4 corners, Borussia Dortmund 3 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls17 foulsFC Bayern München 12 fouls, Borussia Dortmund 17 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card3 cardsFC Bayern München 1 card, Borussia Dortmund 3 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Dayot Upamecano · Bayern München · 42′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJoshua Kimmich · Bayern München · 4′ · 0.02 xG · on targetFábio Silva · Borussia Dortmund · 89′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · Bayern München · 35′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFelix Nmecha · Borussia Dortmund · 88′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNico Schlotterbeck · Borussia Dortmund · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · Bayern München · 68′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · Bayern München · 11′ · 0.08 xG · on targetSacha Boey · Bayern München · 32′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKarim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund · 62′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · Bayern München · 68′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLuis Díaz · Bayern München · 30′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · Bayern München · 36′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedLuis Díaz · Bayern München · 11′ · 0.13 xG · on targetSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 59′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedJoshua Kimmich · Bayern München · 40′ · 0.15 xG · on targetHarry Kane · Bayern München · 22′ · 0.20 xG · goalLuis Díaz · Bayern München · 40′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedKarim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund · 65′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedFelix Nmecha · Borussia Dortmund · 49′ · 0.34 xG · off target or blockedLuis Díaz · Bayern München · 90′ · 0.48 xG · on targetJulian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 84′ · 0.68 xG · goalMichael Olise · Bayern München · 78′ · 0.77 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Bayern München: 15 shots, 7 on target, 2.52 xG. Borussia Dortmund: 8 shots, 1 on target, 1.58 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Harry Kane · Bayern München · 22′Michael Olise · Bayern München · 78′Julian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 84′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bayern München 2.52 xG · Borussia Dortmund 1.58 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2FC Bayern München
2Draws
1Borussia Dortmund
FC Bayern München — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga2–2
Borussia Dortmund — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga1–1
FC Bayern München — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga0–2
Borussia Dortmund — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga0–4
FC Bayern München — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga4–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Bayern München favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · Borussia Dortmund in 0 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Bayern München7 matchesBorussia Dortmund7 matches
3.86 goals/match ▲Goals scored7/71.86 goals/match
0.57 goals/match ▲Goals allowed7/70.86 goals/match
2.73 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/71.69 xG/match
18.9 shots/match ▲Shots7/711.6 shots/match
9.29 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/74.71 shots/match
62% ●Possession7/755%
4.86 corners/matchCorners7/74.86 corners/match
2.43 cards/matchCards7/71.86 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls7/712.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Oct 2025, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC Bayern MünchenBorussia Dortmund
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-headFC Bayern München — Borussia Dortmund
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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