PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 18 Oct 2025, 16:30 UTCFull timeAllianz ArenaFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBayern MünchenBorussia Dortmund
Shots15 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession61%39%
Corners4 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match17 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Borussia Dortmund's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Borussia Dortmund's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Borussia Dortmund's recent record differs from the season

weak

Borussia Dortmund's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.86 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.86 goals/match1.54 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Borussia Dortmund show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Borussia Dortmund's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

18.9 shots/match▲ShotsBayern München · Borussia Dortmund11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBayern MünchenBorussia DortmundBaseline
Shots18.9 shots/match11.6 shots/match13.1 shots/match
Shots against9.57 shots/match10.6 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bayern München favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Borussia Dortmund in 1 · 6 too close

3.86 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 7/71.86 goals/match
0.57 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 7/70.86 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
18.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 7/711.6 shots/match
9.57 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 7/710.6 shots/match
9.29 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 7/74.71 shots/match
2.14 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 7/73.29 shots/match
62%Possessionseason · 7/755%
4.86 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/74.86 corners/match
4.71 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 7/75.29 corners/match
2.43 cards/matchCardsseason · 7/7▲1.86 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/712.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
57%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/757%
100%Scoring frequencyseason · 7/7100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bayern München97.2
Borussia Dortmund75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bayern München97.2
Borussia Dortmund47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bayern München97.2
Borussia Dortmund88.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bayern München86.1
Borussia Dortmund2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bayern München51.4
Borussia Dortmund44.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bayern München41.7
Borussia Dortmund41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bayern München68
Borussia Dortmund41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
3.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
0.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/50.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
18.6 shots/match▲Shots5/512.4 shots/match
9 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match
62.6%Possession5/554.2%
4.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.6 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls5/512.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches
3.86 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71.86 goals/match
0.57 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/70.86 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
18.9 shots/match▲Shots7/711.6 shots/match
9.29 shots/match▲Shots on target7/74.71 shots/match
62%Possession7/755%
4.86 corners/matchCorners7/74.86 corners/match
2.43 cards/matchCards7/71.86 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls7/712.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches
3.86 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71.86 goals/match
0.57 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/70.86 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
18.9 shots/match▲Shots7/711.6 shots/match
9.29 shots/match▲Shots on target7/74.71 shots/match
62%Possession7/755%
4.86 corners/matchCorners7/74.86 corners/match
2.43 cards/matchCards7/71.86 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls7/712.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
4.25 goals/match▲Goals scored4/42 goals/match
0.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/41.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
20.5 shots/match▲Shots4/410.8 shots/match
10.5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/45 shots/match
63.5%Possession4/453.5%
5.25 corners/matchCorners4/43.5 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards4/42.75 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls4/413 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114.1 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Oct 2025, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBayern MünchenBorussia Dortmund
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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