PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 4 Oct 2025, 13:30 UTCFull timeWeserstadionFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricWerder BremenFC St. Pauli
Shots15 shots/match▲13 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession41%59%
Corners4 corners/match0 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FC St. Pauli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Werder Bremen's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

FC St. Pauli's recent record differs from the season

weak

FC St. Pauli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.33 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.33 goals/match1.45 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Werder Bremen show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Werder Bremen's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.7 shots/match▲ShotsWerder Bremen · FC St. Pauli12.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricWerder BremenFC St. PauliBaseline
Shots11.7 shots/match12.7 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against16 shots/match10 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Werder Bremen favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · FC St. Pauli in 6 · 6 too close

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 6/61.33 goals/match
2.33 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 6/6▲1.5 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 6/6▲12.7 shots/match
16 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 6/6▲10 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 6/65.17 shots/match
5.5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 6/6▲5.17 shots/match
46.8%Possessionseason · 6/652.3%
3.33 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/65 corners/match
5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 6/6▲3 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCardsseason · 6/6▲2 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/613.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/617%
67%Scoring frequencyseason · 6/667%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Werder Bremen25
FC St. Pauli69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Werder Bremen43.5
FC St. Pauli50.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Werder Bremen22.2
FC St. Pauli63
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Werder Bremen36.1
FC St. Pauli25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Werder Bremen40.3
FC St. Pauli57
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Werder Bremen8.3
FC St. Pauli44.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Werder Bremen21.5
FC St. Pauli59.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/matchShots5/5▲13 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target5/54.8 shots/match
46.8%Possession5/552.6%
3.8 corners/matchCorners5/55 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFouls5/513.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

6 / 6 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored6/61.33 goals/match
2.33 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲1.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.7 shots/matchShots6/6▲12.7 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target6/65.17 shots/match
46.8%Possession6/652.3%
3.33 corners/matchCorners6/65 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCards6/62 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFouls6/613.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

6 / 6 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored6/61.33 goals/match
2.33 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲1.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.7 shots/matchShots6/6▲12.7 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target6/65.17 shots/match
46.8%Possession6/652.3%
3.33 corners/matchCorners6/65 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCards6/62 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFouls6/613.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 3 matches
1.33 goals/match▲Goals scored3/30.67 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/matchShots3/313 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target3/33.67 shots/match
49.3%Possession3/352.3%
3 corners/matchCorners3/33 corners/match
4.33 cards/matchCards3/32 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls3/314.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.79 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Oct 2025, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsWerder BremenFC St. Pauli
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match