PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 4 Oct 2025, 13:30 UTCFull timeBayArenaFull-time recap
2–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBayer LeverkusenUnion Berlin
Shots20 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match3 shots/match
Possession74%26%
Corners4 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bayer Leverkusen have recorded the higher season possession share. A second useful context is: Bayer Leverkusen's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Bayer Leverkusen have recorded the higher season possession share.

56.8%▲PossessionBayer Leverkusen · Union Berlin30.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 26.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBayer LeverkusenUnion BerlinBaseline
Possession56.8%30.7%49.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Bayer Leverkusen have a visible home split

weak

Bayer Leverkusen's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.5 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.5 shots/match12.2 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bayer Leverkusen favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Union Berlin in 2 · 6 too close

2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 6/61.33 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 6/62.17 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 6/612 shots/match
11.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 6/616 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 6/63.67 shots/match
4.67 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 6/66.5 shots/match
56.8%Possessionseason · 6/630.7%
4.17 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/65 corners/match
6 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 6/6▲4.83 corners/match
3.5 cards/matchCardsseason · 6/6▲2 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/613.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
17%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/617%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 6/650%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bayer Leverkusen80.6
Union Berlin2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bayer Leverkusen60.2
Union Berlin26.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bayer Leverkusen67.6
Union Berlin13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bayer Leverkusen8.3
Union Berlin97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bayer Leverkusen59.7
Union Berlin62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bayer Leverkusen13.9
Union Berlin44.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bayer Leverkusen34
Union Berlin44.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/matchShots5/512.8 shots/match
5.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match
56.2%Possession5/531.8%
3.8 corners/matchCorners5/55 corners/match
4.2 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

6 / 6 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored6/61.33 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/62.17 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShots6/612 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target6/63.67 shots/match
56.8%Possession6/630.7%
4.17 corners/matchCorners6/65 corners/match
3.5 cards/matchCards6/62 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls6/613.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

6 / 6 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored6/61.33 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/62.17 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShots6/612 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target6/63.67 shots/match
56.8%Possession6/630.7%
4.17 corners/matchCorners6/65 corners/match
3.5 cards/matchCards6/62 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls6/613.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 3 matches
1.75 goals/match▲Goals scored4/31.33 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/32.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.5 shots/match▲Shots4/311 shots/match
5.5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/33.67 shots/match
58.8%Possession4/327.7%
4.25 corners/matchCorners4/33.67 corners/match
3.25 cards/matchCards4/31.67 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls4/310.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.83 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Oct 2025, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBayer LeverkusenUnion Berlin
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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